US midterms on 3 November: Democrats favoured for House as Senate control is contested

Control of Congress at stake

Americans vote on 3 November in midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump's term. Republicans hold narrow majorities of 218-214 in the House of Representatives and 53-47 in the Senate, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to overturn them. The result is seen as the first nationwide verdict on Trump's presidency, with voters weighing the cost of living and the US-led war with Iran. An LBC commentary describes Trump's approval rating as at a record low. The Irish Independent reports that Democratic wins in one or both chambers are likely to trigger investigations into the ethics of Trump and his administration, their handling of immigration enforcement and the Iran war.

Democrats expected to win the House

Democrats are widely expected to reclaim the House, and the Cook Political Report, cited by LBC, predicts Democratic gains of up to 25 seats, possibly more. The Senate is far more competitive, with 35 of the 100 seats up for election and about 15 considered genuine battlegrounds. The Independent names five toss-up states, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa and Maine, where Republicans would normally be expected to do well. Hugh Linehan, host of the Irish Times Inside Politics podcast, says the outcome is likely to hinge on eight seats: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas. Kansas has not returned a Democratic senator since 1932, and Trump carried it by 16 points in 2024. A Siena College poll for The New York Times, as cited by LBC, suggests Senator Susan Collins appears to be in trouble in Maine, while Methodist preacher and theologian Adam Hamilton looks capable of defeating Republican Roger Marshall in Kansas.

Early voting, polls and the count

Millions of Americans had already cast their ballots through early voting and by post before the day itself. Pollsters have changed their methods after past misses, contacting more voters in groups that respond at lower rates and weighting results by past presidential voting. A Washington Post-Schar School poll of Kansas voters found registered Democrats were more than twice as likely as registered Republicans to complete the survey, at 32 percent versus 12 percent. Tight contests may need recounts and many postal ballots must still be processed, so it could be some days before the picture becomes clear. Court rulings may be needed before some votes can be certified, and in a worst case control of the Senate could rest on one or two wafer-thin majorities. Election officials have warned that close races could spark disputes.

Timing of the results

Voting closes around 11pm Irish time, and the Irish Times expects the results probably will not be known until Wednesday morning. The Irish Independent says the first results will start to become clear early on Wednesday, 4 November.

Early results from Republican-held House seats in Florida and Virginia could offer clues about the size of any Democratic gains.