US and Iran exchange strikes after helicopter downed near Hormuz, ceasefire in doubt

The trigger: an Apache downed

Fighting erupted again after a US Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz late on Monday. US President Donald Trump quickly blamed Iran, claiming on Truth Social that the Iranians had shot it down. The two crew members were rescued by an uncrewed surface vessel, a Corsair manufactured by Saronic Technologies and assigned to the US Navy's Task Force 59, and were reported safe and uninjured. US officials stressed the incident remains under investigation, but Trump ordered retaliatory strikes before any formal inquiry concluded.

I have just been informed by our Great Military that last night the Iranians shot down one of our highly sophisticated Apache Helicopters while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. There were two pilots involved, both are safe and uninjured.

US strikes hit southern Iran

The US military launched waves of attacks starting late Tuesday, targeting what it described as Iranian air defences, ground control stations and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) called the operation a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression. Iranian officials, however, said civilian infrastructure was also damaged. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that two concrete water storage reservoirs in the Bamani district of Sirik County in Hormozgan Province were destroyed, along with a telecommunications tower in the town of Sirik. Strikes also hit Qeshm Island, the port of Bandar Abbas, Jask and Minab.

This mission constitutes a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression.

Iran retaliates across the Gulf

Hours after the US strikes, Iran launched its own wave of attacks. The IRGC claimed it struck 21 targets at US military bases in the region, including the US Navy's 5th Fleet base in Manama, Bahrain, the al-Azraq base in Jordan, and facilities in Kuwait. Jordan's armed forces said they intercepted and shot down five missiles, while Kuwait reported its air defences were intercepting hostile missile and drone threats. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi issued a stark warning on state television.

Our powerful armed forces will leave no attack or threat unanswered. Leave our region if you want to be safe.

Ceasefire and peace talks in jeopardy

The exchange of fire marks the most severe escalation since a Pakistan-mediated temporary ceasefire was established on April 8, halting all-out hostilities in the US-Israeli war on Iran that began in late February. Talks to turn the ceasefire into a durable peace have been stalling for weeks, with both sides trading limited strikes and blame. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said the overnight events forced a reassessment of participation in negotiations, accusing the US of damaging the diplomatic process through contradictory messages and repeated ceasefire violations.

Following overnight events, we need to reassess... Any diplomatic process requires a minimum stable environment.

Trump, posting on Truth Social, said Iran had taken too long to negotiate a deal and would now pay the price, calling Iran's military a complete and total mess. The rhetoric contrasted sharply with his comments on Tuesday, when he told journalists the two sides were in the final throes of a very good deal. Vice President JD Vance was vague on the timeframe for ending the war, saying it could conclude in a week or a few months with a deal good for the US economically and addressing Iran's nuclear programme.

Analysts see a dangerous miscalculation

Franco-American essayist Romuald Sciora, director of the Political and Geostrategic Observatory of the United States at IRIS, said Trump had no choice but to retaliate after the helicopter downing, as his credibility at home was at stake. He noted Trump has been trying to extract himself from the Iranian quagmire to regain his MAGA base ahead of difficult midterm elections, but the most radical faction of the Iranian government wants to strike back. Sciora warned that unless both sides calm down, the ceasefire appears broken. Experts cited by Al Jazeera said neither side wants a return to full-scale conflict, but both appear determined to test the limits of the truce while seeking greater leverage for future peace negotiations.

Unless both sides calm down, the ceasefire seems to be broken.