US and Iran reach preliminary deal to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz

The framework agreement

The United States and Iran reached a preliminary framework agreement late on Sunday to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US Vice President JD Vance described the document as "very general," about one and a half pages in length. He noted that a series of issues would need to be addressed in an upcoming phase of technical negotiations.

On a number of issues, we will first have to clarify these things in the technical negotiations phase.

President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the deal would see Iran forswear nuclear weapons and immediately reopen the strait. Sanctions could be lifted in return, but Trump also warned of new military strikes if no final nuclear agreement materialises. Experts cautioned that difficult questions remain, from the nuclear programme to Tehran's support for Islamist groups. Walter Posch, an Iran specialist at the Austrian Defence Academy, stressed the war's toll on all sides.

In reality, nobody can really afford this conflict anymore.

As part of the deal, the United States offered Iran conditional access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund, to be co-financed by Gulf states, according to administration officials. Teheran must first verifiably abandon nuclear weapons acquisition and not use released funds for terrorism or regional destabilisation.

Hezbollah and the Lebanon dimension

Despite the preliminary accord, violence persisted in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles, mortar shells, and rockets at Israeli soldiers on Monday, while Israel's military said it intercepted numerous projectiles. An Israeli drone strike killed one person in a vehicle near Kfar Tebnit. The Israeli army said the attack was aimed at eliminating a threat.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel would remain in a "security zone" in Lebanon for as long as necessary. He insisted Iran would not obtain nuclear weapons.

The Islamic Republic will not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, with or without an agreement.

He acknowledged occasional differences with President Trump. Iran's ally Hezbollah maintains that the accord should also cover Lebanon, but Israeli ministers rejected that interpretation. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz demanded that the agreement be extended to Lebanon.

Oil markets and US reserves

The war has drained US strategic oil reserves to a 40-year low. In June, the United States held 340.3 million barrels, the smallest stockpile since July 1983. In March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated the largest-ever release of emergency reserves as oil prices surged. President Trump minimised the drawdown, saying the reserve was being "reduced a bit, and that lowers prices," but rising fuel costs have eroded his approval ratings ahead of the November congressional midterm elections.

German political pressure

Conservative defence politicians in Germany demanded full clarity on the agreement's content before any Bundeswehr mandate. Thomas Röwekamp, chairman of the Defence Committee, said a Bundestag vote with a simple majority would be required. He noted that German naval capabilities, including mine clearance and maritime surveillance, could support an international mission.

These decisions depend heavily on the final text of the agreements.

Thomas Erndl, defence spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, urged the federal government to quickly establish the legal basis for a mandate.