US existing-home sales fall to lowest since 2010 as mortgage rates top 7%

Sales fall to the slowest pace since 2010

The National Association of Realtors reported on 12 November that sales of previously owned homes fell 5.5% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million in October. That was the slowest pace since August 2010 and below a consensus estimate of 3.85 million cited by the Financial Times. Compared with October 2025, sales were down 8.8%, and year-over-year declines appeared in all four regions. The association counts a sale when the contract closes, so October's figures mostly reflect contracts signed in August and September. Pending home sales, which count contracts signed before closing, reached their lowest level in the association's history in September.

How mortgage rates climbed

Mortgage rates have risen since late February, when the US war with Iran began, as surging inflation from higher energy prices pushed Treasury yields up. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average fell below 6% for the first time in February 2026, then reached 7.33% in October, up from 6.86% in September and 6.25% a year earlier. According to the Financial Times, the rate touched as high as 7.5% in early October before easing. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, setting a range of 3.75% to 4%, and is poised to raise them again in December 2026 to combat inflation that rose more than expected in October.

Weekly readings and buyer costs

Freddie Mac said on 12 November that the average 30-year fixed loan fell to 7.11% from 7.18%, the fourth straight weekly decline, though it remains above 7%. Industry experts say the 7% threshold is not likely to be breached any time soon, which keeps affordability under strain. Realtor.com estimates that buying a median-priced home now costs an estimated $2,468 a month, an 85% increase over the $1,332 in principal and interest that typical current homeowners pay. That estimate assumes new buyers make a 14.3% down payment and hold a mortgage rate of 7.32%.

2025-10

6.25 %

2026-09

6.86 %

2026-10

7.33 %

Data from the article text

Buyers, inventory and prices

First-time buyers accounted for 29% of home purchases in October, down from 31% in September and 32% in October 2025. Historically they have made up closer to 40% of sales. Unsold inventory reached 1.59 million units in October, a 5.1-month supply, the highest in more than a decade according to analysts at Barclays and JPMorgan. Many homeowners remain reluctant to sell because they locked in low rates earlier, which has kept listings scarce. The median existing-home sales price rose slightly to $416,700, and NAR reported that prices are up 0.4% from a year earlier.

2025-1032%

2026-0931%

2026-1029%

2025-10

32 %

2026-09

31 %

2026-10

29 %

Data from the article text

Officials and the political backdrop

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun linked the weak sales directly to borrowing costs, saying

“Home buying is difficult when mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels since 2000, aside from a single month in 2023.”

Yun expects home sales this year will likely end up lower than in 2025, after sales were essentially flat last year at a 30-year low. Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, described the slump differently, arguing that

“I don't think this is a new normal for home sales.”

Affordability and cost-of-living concerns played an outsized role in the midterm elections, which gave Democrats control of Congress next year.