UniCredit targets Commerzbank control in 2027 and a possible earlier HVB merger

Approvals and timetable

UniCredit said on Monday, 9 November 2026, that it expects the last regulatory approvals needed to lift its Commerzbank stake to just under 50% by the end of November. Once they are in place, the Milan-based bank plans to ask Commerzbank to convene an extraordinary shareholder meeting to elect new supervisory board members. The European Central Bank approved the deal last month. Berlin has relaxed its opposition this year, and the summer takeover offer has already given UniCredit close to half of Commerzbank's shares.

German reports place the handover of control in the first quarter of 2027. In the same period UniCredit intends to start restructuring under its "Unlocked" strategy and to install a new governance structure at Commerzbank.

In its third-quarter statement, UniCredit wrote that the next steps are clear.

An earlier merger with HVB

A merger of Commerzbank with its Munich subsidiary HypoVereinsbank (HVB) could happen sooner than UniCredit had previously indicated. A UniCredit presentation said such a step would create significantly more value. In April, Andrea Orcel had placed the merger in the period after 2028, and he had repeatedly said he wanted two to three years to reshape Commerzbank first. If HVB were folded into Commerzbank, analysts estimate UniCredit's share could climb to around 70%, without heavily straining its capital buffers.

Handelsblatt reports that the "Unlocked" plan includes cutting 7,000 full-time jobs in Germany and sharply thinning Commerzbank's foreign network. Commerzbank chief executive Bettina Orlopp rejects these plans, arguing they would destroy value, though she sees scope for closer cooperation with UniCredit in purchasing, cross-border business, products, AI and cybersecurity. According to financial circles cited by Handelsblatt, Orcel intends to replace the shareholder side of the supervisory board and then replace Orlopp herself. Once its stake rises, UniCredit must fully consolidate Commerzbank on its balance sheet, and the finance and risk departments of both banks are preparing for that step.

Third-quarter results

Net profit rose 24% year on year in the third quarter to €3.26 billion, above analyst expectations, while revenues climbed 12% to €6.9 billion. The bank attributed the gains to continued cost reductions. UniCredit raised its 2026 profit target before extraordinary charges to above €11.5 billion and lifted its planned interim dividend to €4.5 billion. It also expects earnings per share to exceed €10 by 2028, with more than €8 of that paid out to shareholders.

Commerzbank shareholders, by contrast, should expect smaller dividends in the near term, because the new strategy involves extraordinary provisions, charges and investment. Commerzbank had previously paid out nearly all of its profit to shareholders. Orcel described the quarter in strong terms.

“UniCredit has delivered its best quarter ever, and the best in the sector.”

Third-quarter net profit3.26

Third-quarter revenues6.9

Interim dividend4.5

Third-quarter net profit

3.26 billion euros

Third-quarter revenues

6.9 billion euros

Interim dividend

4.5 billion euros

Data from the article text