UN warns El Niño likely to emerge by August, bringing extreme weather and heat worldwide

The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued an urgent warning on Tuesday, 2 June, that the El Niño climate phenomenon is likely to develop in the coming months. The agency's latest bulletin places an 80% probability on El Niño conditions emerging between June and August 2026, with a 90% chance that the pattern will persist at least through November.

A warming Pacific

The warning follows weeks of rising ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the key monitoring region for El Niño. Sea surface temperatures are approaching the threshold for El Niño, driven by a substantial reservoir of heat below the surface. The WMO noted that subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are exceeding the historical average by 6°C. Coastal sea temperatures near Peru and Ecuador are also much warmer than average, a classic precursor to the phenomenon.

El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is.

Global consequences

El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern that happens every two to seven years, shifts global weather by altering winds, pressure, and rainfall. The WMO forecasts above-average temperatures nearly everywhere from June to August. Typical impacts include increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, alongside drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia. The phenomenon can also spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific.

We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.

Amplified by a warmer planet

While there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events themselves, the additional background heating caused by greenhouse gas emissions amplifies their impacts. The planet is already roughly 1.3°C warmer than pre-industrial levels. The last El Niño, in 2023–2024, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to making 2024 the hottest year ever measured. Meteorologists are already predicting that 2027 could set a new annual temperature record.

When you have an El Niño over what climate change already brought, the risks are enormous.

Cascading risks

The WMO and other experts warn of a cascade of consequences. Researchers at Imperial College London and the World Weather Attribution network have flagged the potential for especially severe wildfires. The European Union has announced plans to deploy a record number of firefighters and aircraft in high-risk areas across Cyprus, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo also highlighted risks including a wider spread of vector-borne diseases carried by mosquitoes and ticks, and reduced food and water supplies. Some meteorologists have drawn comparisons to an 1877 El Niño event that catalyzed extensive droughts and a global famine responsible for over 50 million deaths.

El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.

Forecast timeline

Most forecast models suggest the event will be at least moderate, and possibly strong. The WMO cautioned that uncertainty remains about the peak intensity. U.S. forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center have also issued an El Niño watch, placing a 96% chance on El Niño peaking between December 2026 and February 2027.