UKHSA issues first yellow cold health alert of winter as Arctic air brings sub-zero lows

Yellow alert covers two regions

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issued the first yellow cold health alert of the winter season, covering the North West and West Midlands. It came into force at 9am on Thursday, 12 November and runs until 12pm on Saturday, 14 November. Other regions of England were not affected at the time of reporting. The alert was issued in association with the Met Office and warns of minor impacts on health and social care, with greater use of services by vulnerable people. Officials say cold weather raises the risk for people aged over 65 and for those with heart and lung conditions. Health leaders have urged people to check on loved ones and neighbours.

“This is the first cold health alert of the winter, but we can expect more as we move further into the season.”

Dr Anya Gopfert, a consultant in public health at the UKHSA, added that further alerts are likely as the season moves on.

Arctic air and sub-zero nights

Northerly winds are bringing air from the Arctic and some of the most widespread low temperatures of the autumn so far. Thursday afternoon highs are expected to stay in single digits for most, mostly between 6 and 10C, and the wind chill will make it feel colder than the thermometer shows. Overnight lows could fall to -7C, with a widespread frost on Thursday night and a few icy stretches possible in northern Scotland. Temperatures are forecast to drop to -1C by 6am on Friday, 13 November, in Hereford, Kendal, Manchester, Yeovil, Stoke-on-Trent and Preston. The Met Office warns temperatures could plunge below -5C in some rural areas on Thursday and Friday nights. Gusts of 50 to 60mph are possible in north-east Scotland for a time, while showers in the north could fall as rain, sleet and hail, with a little snow over high ground.

Forecast for the weekend and next week

The Met Office expects colder conditions to reach the north by Wednesday, 11 November, with snow showers in northern Scotland overnight into Thursday. Colder air then spreads further south through Thursday and Friday, bringing a widespread frost and especially cold conditions in the far north-east. Saturday starts cold and frosty for many, with sunshine, though it will be cloudier in the north and west. Sunday and Monday, 15 and 16 November, turn more unsettled, with rain and possible hill snow. The UKHSA alert ends at 12pm on Saturday, before those unsettled days begin.

Polar vortex breakdown

A critical blockade of the polar vortex, the band of upper-level winds wrapping around the Arctic Circle, temporarily broke down on Tuesday, 10 November. Disruptions like this often push intensely cold air out of the Arctic toward lower latitudes. The breakdown came much earlier in the year than normal, since disruptions of this extent typically occur in the latter half of winter. Computer model guidance expects the reversal to last through Thursday, 12 November. The vortex can splinter, as it did in early 2015, when Chicago recorded its coldest February in nearly 140 years and Lexington, Kentucky, bottomed out at -18 degrees Fahrenheit. Experts still are not sure how the current breakdown will play out in everyday weather, and reliable forecasts reach only about 10 days ahead. Weather patterns usually take a few weeks to respond to a disruption, if they respond at all.