Ukraine claims strikes disabled 51% of Russian refining capacity as air attacks batter Ukrainian ports

Refinery strikes and Russian energy output

Kyiv reported that deep strikes on refineries across Moscow, Yaroslavl, Ust-Luga, Perm, Saratov, and Syzran have put 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity out of action. Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara stated that intelligence and general staff analysts confirmed the assessment. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged during a Valdai Club meeting that the attacks caused Russia to lose approximately 1% of gross domestic product. Russian finance ministry figures showed oil and gas tax revenue dropped 17% in the first nine months of the year to 5.47 trillion roubles ($64.43 billion) from 6.01 trillion roubles a year earlier. OPEC data indicated crude output fell to 8.718 million barrels per day in August from 9.240 million in January.

They started attacking oil refineries and openly declared the goal of damaging our economy. Did they achieve their goal? Partially.

Air attacks on ports, vessels, and Kharkiv

Russian forces launched strikes against maritime and urban infrastructure across Ukraine. The Russian defence ministry stated it struck two Ukrainian cargo vessels in the Black Sea, fuel storage facilities in Chornomorsk, Vylkove port, and the Kochetok electrical substation in Kharkiv region. Odesa Governor Oleh Kiper confirmed extensive strikes on industrial and port facilities, noting that emergency crews extinguished all resulting fires. In Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that a guided bomb attack killed three people, injured 25, and damaged residential buildings and warehouses after initial reports cited one death and six injuries. The cross-border impact extended westward, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas noting that Russian missiles and drones entered Moldovan airspace over the weekend following a September 30 intrusion by three drones.

Europe has seen a spike in the Russian hybrid attacks and sabotage attempts and airspace violations in recent weeks. Russian missiles and drones violated Moldovan airspace ⁠again over the weekend. And this is completely unacceptable.

Ukrainian industrial strain and German energy deals

Repeated bombardments have disrupted Ukrainian heavy industry and public finances. In Kryvyi Rih, operations at the ArcelorMittal mining and steel complex remained suspended following ballistic missile strikes. Mayor Oleksandr Vilkul reported that the city faces severe economic strains while attempting to keep hospitals, schools, and transit running. Ukraine faces a $56 billion funding gap this year, including $27 billion for military expenditure, while seeking frontloaded disbursements from a €90 billion EU loan. To bolster its energy resilience ahead of winter, state firm Naftogaz is negotiating the purchase of five gas-turbine compressors and 12 gas turbine generation units from Siemens Energy. The talks followed a visit by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose accompanying business delegation signed 14 bilateral agreements valued at €6.6 billion ($7.39 billion).

In Kryvyi Rih, the situation is actually worse than anywhere else, apart from the front line itself.