World
The war in Ukraine and its limits
Updated 3h ago
1/5
The war is defined by reciprocal long-range strikes on economic infrastructure, with Ukraine targeting Russian refineries and logistics while Russia bombards Ukrainian cities, as US-mediated ceasefire frameworks tied to energy infrastructure and a pause on deep strikes show signs of stalling.
No new discrete events this cycle; findings restate the 27 August barrage, Ozon hub strikes, and EU tranche already in the chronicle.
State of play
Deep-Strike Campaign
Ukraine's refinery strikes have forced at least six Russian regions to tighten gasoline rationing, with refining output down an estimated 28% after drone hits on 11 refineries since late July. All major Lukoil refineries remain offline except Ukhta. Drones are now hitting Ozon logistics hubs in Ufa and Orenburg alongside previously struck Wildberries depots, expanding the campaign from oil facilities to e-commerce supply chains.
Russian Strikes on Cities
Russia's 27 August barrage of 258 drones, two Oniks anti-ship missiles and ballistic missiles targeted ports in Odesa, industrial sites in Kremenchuk, an energy facility in Myrhorod district, and steelworks in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine downed 222 drones and seven ballistic missiles, but 15 locations were hit. The defence ministry framed all targets as military-industrial assets.
Ceasefire Diplomacy
Putin's conditions for pausing strikes on Ukrainian port and energy infrastructure require Ukraine to halt strikes beyond 200km from the front, cease attacks on Crimea and refineries, and stop targeting civilian infrastructure. Kremlin-linked sources told Bloomberg talks have reached a dead end, with some favouring escalated strikes on Kyiv. No agreement has been announced.
Western Support
The EU's €6.1 billion tranche brings approved procurement under the Support Loan to €16 billion, with €8.35 billion disbursed and a further tranche expected in early September. France joined the UK in sharing classified Scalp missile manufacturing data with Ukraine.
Key events
Full chronicle838
This week
- Russia's 27 August barrage of 258 drones hits nine Ukrainian cities; air defences down 222 drones but 15 locations struck
- Ukrainian drones expand from refineries to Ozon e-commerce hubs in Ufa and Orenburg
- Kremlin-linked sources tell Bloomberg ceasefire talks have reached a dead end
- EU approves €6.1 billion defence procurement tranche, bringing approved total to €16 billion
- France joins UK in sharing classified Scalp missile manufacturing data with Ukraine