Trump expects Ukraine war to end soon with Ukraine in a different form

Trump's prediction for the war

Donald Trump told a television interview that he expects the war in Ukraine to end soon, and that Ukraine will end up in a somewhat different form. He said he believes an end can be reached and will come. Trump has predicted a quick end since the start of his second term in early 2025, and at times he has said the war, which has run since February 2022, could be settled within 24 hours. Asked whether Vladimir Putin was stringing him along, Trump said he did not believe so and added that nobody had been tougher on Russia than he was. He also declined to say whether he trusted Putin or Wolodymyr Selenskyj more.

Territory at the heart of the dispute

Russia claims the areas in eastern Ukraine that it has occupied since the war began, along with the part of the eastern Donbas region that is still under Ukrainian control. Moscow also wants to keep Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. Ukraine points to its constitution, which enshrines the country's territorial integrity. Trump said the biggest obstacle to ending the war had been the hatred between Selenskyj and Vladimir Putin. When reporter Ross Douthat asked whether that hatred was understandable given the Russian invasion, Trump said that at their first meeting Russia had been treated very disrespectfully. His remark about a changed shape for Ukraine therefore goes to the central point of the dispute.

Sanctions relief and fuel prices

Trump said he had made the most recent exception from US sanctions to allow the sale of Russian diesel because the world market needed it. In the US, the step was seen as a rather desperate attempt to bring down fuel prices that had climbed during the Iran war. The sharp rise in prices contributed to a heavy defeat for Trump's Republicans in the US congressional elections held in early November. The reports do not give figures for the diesel volumes involved or for the size of the price change.

Talks in Abu Dhabi and wider diplomacy

Steve Witkoff has said the United States wants to bring delegations from Ukraine and Russia together in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November. The talks are to cover an end to the war, security arrangements for the period afterwards and de-escalation. France's foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, told RTL radio that France would take part in Abu Dhabi and that Europeans would be well represented there. Trump expects to meet Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at an APEC summit in China, a meeting he called interesting, with topics beyond Ukraine including denuclearisation and an end to the Iran war. Marco Rubio said Trump was probably referring to progress on security guarantees for Ukraine and Europe, which have repeatedly featured in negotiations. US representatives also held productive talks in Brussels with Ukraine, NATO and European partners about a future security architecture.

What happens next

The Abu Dhabi meeting is the next scheduled step, with delegations expected there on 10 and 11 November. The APEC summit in China would bring Trump together with Putin and Xi, although the reports give no date for it. The steps reported so far are set out in the timeline below.

The reports do not set out the terms of any agreement, nor do they say what territory Ukraine would give up under one.