Trump says US will end Israel military aid as Democrats take Congress

A defeat that reshapes the alliance

Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the 3 November midterm elections. As of Friday, 6 November, the New York Times counted at least 253 of the 435 House seats and at least 54 of the 100 Senate seats for the party, and estimated that Republicans trail by about 13 points in the national House vote. N-tv described it as the worst defeat for Republicans since the elections after the Watergate scandal, about half a century ago. The result came amid an unpopular war with Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and oil-market turmoil that voters blamed for rising living costs.

Trump's announcement on election day

Trump told an interviewer on election day that the United States would stop its military aid to Israel at the end of the year. The aid runs at roughly $3.8bn a year, mostly as subsidies for purchases of American-made weapons, under a ten-year package signed during Barack Obama's presidency that expires in 2028. Trump said Israel no longer needed the money and described the country as "thriving". He gave a political reason as well.

“It's a bad talking point.”

Trump also claimed he had agreed with Benjamin Netanyahu long ago to end the payments, although NZZ noted it was unclear how an early termination would work in practice. He said the US could still sell arms to Israel and help it when needed. Israeli officials were taken by surprise, and Netanyahu's office took three days to respond.

Vance and the war

Vance blamed the war with Iran for the defeat in a post on Wednesday, 4 November, the day after the vote. He listed four concerns of voters who moved to the Democrats: an end to the war, lower living costs, "America first", and a changed relationship with Israel. According to the Jerusalem Post, exit polls found 62 percent of voters rejected the war. Vance's remarks drew wide attention in Israel, where some commentators called the results a catastrophe.

Shifting opinion in both parties

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed won a Senate seat after fiercely criticising military aid to Israel. Several candidates boasted about refusing donations from a pro-Israel lobby group, which said two weeks before the election that it would stop endorsing candidates. A February poll found 36 percent of Americans sympathised with Israel and 41 percent with the Palestinians, and in July 103 House Democrats voted to end military aid to Israel. Republican criticism of Israel had earlier come mainly from populists such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson.

Sympathize with Israel36%

Sympathize with Palestinians41%

Sympathize with Israel

36 %

Sympathize with Palestinians

41 %

Data from the article text

Avner Golov, a former senior director on Israel's national-security council, read the timing of Trump's announcement as a signal:

“The fact Trump said this on the day of the midterms was a political message that Israel is currently unpopular with both parties.”

Israel's response at home

In the recent Knesset election, Netanyahu's bloc won 53 of 120 seats, down from 64 in 2022. The opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot took 48 seats, and the Arab parties won 19, a record result. Netanyahu and his allies claim Arab parties "stole" the vote through bribery, foreign money and fraud, and call for investigations or, in extreme cases, a rerun. Noam Sohlberg, who heads the Central Elections Committee, says even confirmed suspicions would not change the integrity of the election or its result. Eisenkot charged that Israel's security apparatus learned of the aid reversal from the media and that Netanyahu can no longer be trusted.

Netanyahu bloc53

Opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot48

Arab parties19

Netanyahu bloc

53 seats

Opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot

48 seats

Arab parties

19 seats

Data from the article text

What happens next

According to NZZ, Democrats in Congress want to end the war with Iran quickly, hold Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and others accountable, and examine Trump's business dealings with Gulf states. From January, Democrats can help decide the funds for a renewed war, which Netanyahu had promised during the campaign to resume with Trump, according to Berliner Zeitung. Tehran's leadership has already celebrated the Democratic win as "regime change". N-tv, citing the New York Times, reported that in a private call about six days before the vote, Trump's strategists joked about asylum in Israel. MAGA Inc. spokesman Alex Pfeiffer rejected the newspaper's account.