Trump threatens to double Mexico tariffs over migrant caravans, Sheinbaum rejects claim

Trump escalates over caravans

On Thursday, 12 November, Trump posted on Truth Social that Mexico must stop migrant caravans or face tariffs that would be doubled immediately. He described the groups as an "invasion" and tied them to his party's defeat in the midterm elections in early November, when Democrats took control of Congress. The post did not say which tariffs would be doubled or how the measure would work. He wrote that Mexico's government, the governors of Texas, the Border Patrol and ICE had all been informed of his position.

“MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED.”

He closed the message by promising there would be no leniency, and he offered no evidence for his claim that an invasion was under way.

Sheinbaum rejects the claim

Claudia Sheinbaum answered at her daily press conference the same day, saying that no migrant caravan has reached the northern border since Trump returned to power.

“Since President Trump took office, no migrant caravan has reached the northern border.”

She said migrants are told that entering the United States is very difficult, and that the authorities seek safe returns to their home countries or, under certain conditions, stay in a designated place in Mexico. According to her, most migrants choose to go home once they receive that information. She also said Mexico would not use force against the groups. The caravan in Arriaga, Chiapas, had between 500 and 600 members at the start, she said, and now has fewer than 100.

Two caravans on the road

The group that set out on Tuesday, 10 November, left from Tapachula, a Mexican city near the Guatemalan border. Reuters, citing regional government information, put it at about 1,500 people, many of them families, while other reports gave a figure of 2,000.

Reuters estimate1,500

Other reports2,000

Reuters estimate

1500 people

Other reports

2000 people

Data from the article text

Sheinbaum said a second caravan had recently formed in Honduras, which authorities would handle with humanitarian aid and in line with human rights standards, though she gave no size for it. Local media reported that Chiapas authorities had turned back migrants who tried to join the group that week. The group originally planned to walk to Mexico City, a journey of several weeks, to ask the Mexican government for help. Sheinbaum said the National Migration Institute had handled about ten or more caravans over the past two years.

Trade talks and the Congress shift

The threat comes while Mexico and the United States negotiate a review of the USMCA, the trade pact known in Mexico as T-MEC, and Trump's post adds uncertainty to those talks. Mexico and the United States are working toward lower tariffs, including those on Mexican steel, and Sheinbaum's government hopes to reach an agreement before the end of 2026. The threat also follows, by a few months, Trump's decision not to extend the existing trade agreement among the three countries. Trump named Stephen Miller, the architect of his immigration push, as chief of staff in early November, which the Washington Post reads as a sign he will double down on migration policy in his final two years in office. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin wrote on social media that his department would use all means to secure the border and that the caravan would not be let in. Sheinbaum said she did not think her planned meeting with Xi Jinping at APEC would be a problem for the ongoing trade talks, and that she probably would not meet Trump there but could see him at the G20 summit in Miami.