ASEAN summit opens in Manila as Trump is due Tuesday and anti-Trump protests are planned

Opening days in Manila

The summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations opens on Sunday, 15 November, in Manila, and runs until Tuesday, 17 November. Trade, security and the energy crisis are the main items on the agenda, and discussions are expected to be shaped by the disruption from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has hit the region and especially the Philippines. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, recently re-elected, is due at a plenary session of the bloc's 11 member states on Sunday, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang will represent China. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Saturday that negotiations for a broad free trade agreement with the Philippines have concluded.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to sign a new defence agreement with the host country during the summit. Leaders also plan to seek a common approach to haze from forest fires in Indonesia and to strategies for sharing energy resources in response to the war in Iran.

Trump's expected arrival and the Quad

Donald Trump is expected to arrive in Manila on Tuesday, near the close of the summit, for a stay of less than 24 hours. Deutsche Welle reports that it would be his first visit to the Philippines in nine years. The visit could include a meeting with the other Quad members, India, Japan and Australia, a grouping designed to counterbalance China's influence in the region.

The Quad gathering is set to take place only days before a trilateral meeting in Shenzhen, China, on Thursday, 19 November, where Trump is expected to meet Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Reports differ on how the Shenzhen event is framed, with one describing a trilateral meeting and another placing Trump there at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, where Xi is waiting for him.

Protests against Pax Silica

About 20,000 police officers have been deployed in Manila for the summit. Progressive organisations expect thousands of people to join an anti-Trump march toward the summit venue on Tuesday. The main target is the US Pax Silica programme, which is designed to counter China's dominance in semiconductors and rare earths.

The programme's flagship project, a 1,620-hectare production site north of Manila, could force indigenous families to move. US Ambassador to the Philippines Lee Lipton said last week that reports of a deal to be signed in November during Trump's visit had no real basis.

Unresolved regional issues

Myanmar has been excluded from ASEAN's high-level meetings since the 2021 military coup, which ousted the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi and triggered a civil war that is still ongoing. Myanmar's military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, has not been invited, and Thailand proposed last week readmitting Myanmar's foreign minister to the meetings. Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro told journalists on Saturday that there had been no progress on how to approach Myanmar, which is accused of genocide against the Rohingya minority.

Two long-running disputes, a code of conduct for the South China Sea and relations with Myanmar, appear set to pass to Singapore when it takes the rotating chair in 2027. Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said ASEAN must be more proactive on cross-border haze and proposed science diplomacy and a sustainable haze fund. Reports by Greenpeace and Walhi link companies with Malaysian and Singaporean ties to the Indonesian fires, and Singapore summoned the heads of 10 suspected companies on 28 October.