Trump approval drops to career-low 32% as fuel costs and Iran conflict hit Republican support

Record drop in public approval

Public approval for US President Donald Trump fell to 32% in a nationwide Reuters and Ipsos survey that concluded on Sunday, September 20. The result is the lowest approval level of his entire political career and places his public standing below the lowest job approval figure recorded during the presidency of Joe Biden. Trump had returned to the White House in January 2025 with an approval rating of 47% after campaigning on explicit commitments to curb domestic inflation and avoid costly foreign military interventions. The latest survey reflects a three-point decline from the 35% overall approval registered just one week earlier. The four-day online poll gathered responses from 1,277 adult participants across the country and carries a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Economic discontent and Republican erosion

Discontent over household finances emerged as the primary factor dragging down executive approval ratings across demographic groups. A total of 17% of surveyed adults expressed approval of Trump's handling of the cost of living, which participants identified as the single most critical issue that will determine their voting decisions in the upcoming November 3 midterm elections. This widespread economic dissatisfaction has noticeably eroded support among Trump's core political base. Job approval among Republican voters dropped from 82% in the prior week to 73% in the latest survey. For the first time in the polling series, Republicans who disapprove of the administration's handling of consumer costs outnumber those who approve, with 51% expressing disapproval compared to 44% who back his approach.

Oil market disruption from the Iran conflict

The economic friction reflects sharp fuel price increases resulting from military operations initiated earlier in the year. In February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran that failed to force an early capitulation. Instead, Iranian forces largely blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime chokepoint that normally accommodates roughly 20% of global oil and gas trade. The resulting supply bottleneck caused steep increases in retail prices for gasoline and diesel across international markets and within the United States. The persistent pressure on fuel prices directly undermined the administration's early domestic promises to reduce living expenses and stabilize energy costs.

Congressional midterm implications

The shift in voter sentiment creates substantial political vulnerability for the Republican Party as it defends narrow legislative majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. In the survey's generic congressional ballot question, 43% of registered voters stated they would cast their ballots for Democratic candidates on November 3, while 35% indicated support for Republicans. This eight-point margin represents the widest lead registered for the Democratic Party in Reuters and Ipsos polling since the start of 2026. A loss of majority control in either chamber of Congress would severely restrict Trump's capacity to advance his legislative agenda and judicial appointments across the final two years of his presidential term.