Hurricane Trudy reaches Category 2 off Mexico's Pacific coast, with a stronger storm forecast
Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional put Trudy at 165 km/h sustained winds at 21:00 local time on 15 October, with heavy rain forecast for Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacán ahead of a weekend approach to the coast.
Storm strengthens toward Mexico
Hurricane Trudy strengthened on 15 October as it moved toward Mexico's Pacific coast. Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) placed the storm at Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale at 21:00 local time that day, with sustained winds of 165 km/h and gusts of 205 km/h. At that hour the center was 375 km southwest of Acapulco and 405 km south of Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán, and the SMN expected the system to keep strengthening rapidly. Earlier that day, Mexico's National Water Commission (Conagua) had put the storm at Category 1, 465 km from Acapulco, with sustained winds of 120 km/h, while the US National Hurricane Center in Miami gave winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a northwest movement at 9 mph (15 km/h).
Rain and coastal warnings
Forecasts center on the weekend of 17 and 18 October, when the storm is expected to approach southwestern and west-central Mexico. AP reports rainfall of 4 to 8 inches (101 to 203 millimeters) through the weekend across Colima and Jalisco, citing the hurricane center. A dpa report puts the expected rainfall at up to 200 mm in those states and locally up to 300 mm, a figure that differs from AP's. The SMN expects heavy rain in Guerrero and Oaxaca, very heavy rain in Michoacán, winds of 30 to 40 km/h with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h, and swells of 2 to 3 meters. The SMN has adjusted a hurricane watch zone from Punta San Telmo, Michoacán to Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, and kept a tropical storm prevention zone from Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo, Guerrero.
Intensity forecasts
The US hurricane center said the storm was on track to reach Category 3 or stronger on 16 October. The New York Times reports that forecasters expect it could reach Category 4. Conagua expects Category 4 strength on 17 October while the storm runs parallel to the coasts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. On 15 October it was still unclear whether the storm would make landfall, the New York Times reported.
- Trudy forms as a tropical storm southwest of Mexico
- Conagua reports a Category 1 hurricane 465 km from Acapulco, with 120 km/h winds
- SMN upgrades Trudy to Category 2 with 165 km/h sustained winds
- US National Hurricane Center forecasts Category 3 or stronger strength
- Conagua expects Category 4 strength
Preparations in Guerrero and Oaxaca
Authorities in Guerrero and Oaxaca began preparing on the morning of 14 October for the scenarios the SMN had described. Both states expected localized very heavy rain from the storm. The Guerrero government suspended classes and administrative activity across the state for 15 October and readied heavy machinery for coastal areas. Oaxaca's state government asked people to avoid swimming in the sea because of swells and tides.
An unusually active Pacific season
Trudy is the 21st named cyclone to form across the central and eastern Pacific this year, according to the New York Times. If it reaches Category 3 or stronger, it would be the tenth such hurricane of the season, while a typical Pacific season sees four or five, according to NOAA. The Pacific record of 11 was set in 2015, a year also marked by a strong El Niño, said Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. Mexico's weather service expects 18 to 21 named Pacific storms this season, of which four to five could become Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.
Earlier storms in the region
Heavy weather had already hit Mexico earlier in the week. A report from El Universal on Tuesday, 13 October, cited by dpa, said at least five people had died and others were missing in storms linked to Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel. El País reported that Simon peaked as a Category 4 storm, with at least two deaths, one in Chilpancingo, Guerrero, and one in Mazatlán, Sinaloa. Simon later weakened to Category 1 and forced the closure of at least seven ports in Baja California Sur, Sinaloa and Nayarit, El País said on 14 October. The figures are not directly comparable, because the dpa count covers both Simon and Rachel while the El País count covers Simon alone.