Poll shows Gibała leading Piątkowska by 0.5 points ahead of Kraków snap election

Tightening race at the top

An IBRiS poll conducted on 7-8 September among 1,000 residents shows a narrowing contest for the presidency of Kraków ahead of the snap election scheduled for 27 September. Independent candidate Łukasz Gibała, a city councillor representing the Kraków dla Mieszkańców association, leads with 17.6% support, down 3.4 percentage points from 21.0% in the 24 August survey. Senator Monika Piątkowska, running on the Ponad Podziałami ticket with support from Koalicja Obywatelska and Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, follows with 17.1% support. Piątkowska gained 5.0 percentage points since late August, reducing Gibała's lead from nearly nine points to 0.5 percentage points amid her campaign promoting the "Piątka Piątkowskiej" platform.

Registered candidates and disqualified campaigns

Eight candidates will contest the city leadership, with a second round scheduled for 11 October if no contender captures an outright majority. Law and Justice candidate Michał Drewnicki holds third place in the poll with 13.2% support, rising from 10.7% in August. Left-wing candidate Daria Gosek-Popiołek of Lewica is fourth with 11.2%, up from 9.4%. Jan Hoffman of the Referendum: Naprawimy Kraków committee, who was among the organizers of the May recall vote, rose 3.0 percentage points to 7.1%. Aleksandra Owca of Partia Razem registered 6.9% compared to 6.8% in August, while Michał Klimek of Konfederacja Korony Polskiej gained 3.5% after registering zero in August. Sławomir Pietrzyk of Socjaldemokracja Polska received 0.7%. Konfederacja candidate Bartosz Bocheńczak was barred from the ballot after election authorities validated 2,745 signatures and rejected 2,289, with his subsequent appeal being dismissed. Former NIK president Marian Banaś also failed to qualify after missing the required signature quota.

Impact of undecided electorate

The IBRiS survey shows that 20.1% of Kraków respondents remain undecided, while 2.6% state they will not cast ballots. Sociologist and IBRiS founder Marcin Duma noted that shifts among undecided voters will define the final phase of the campaign.

In the coming weeks, as the election date approaches, this group will shrink, and the picture of this race will begin to crystallize. Then we will also see where the undecided voters flow and whether the current balance of power between the candidates will hold.

In parallel polling on parliamentary voting preferences in Kraków, Koalicja Obywatelska received 36.5% support, representing an increase of 9.5 percentage points since August. Law and Justice followed with 13.2%, while Konfederacja polled at 10.6%.

Origins in the May recall referendum

The snap municipal vote follows the recall referendum held on 24 May, which unseated Mayor Aleksander Miszalski. In that referendum, over 171,500 residents voted in favor of recalling Miszalski, while more than 3,600 voted against removal. Total participation reached over 176,000 voters, generating a turnout of 29.99%. This surpassed the statutory minimum threshold of 26.98%, which required at least 158,500 participants for the result to take legal effect. Miszalski had assumed office in 2024 following municipal elections before being removed by the recall vote, leading to the scheduling of the 27 September snap ballot.