One-third of coral reefs are climate-resilient, researchers report at Kenya conference
A study presented at the Our Ocean conference in Mombasa found 166,000 sq km of coral reefs (about one third) are resilient to climate change, challenging earlier IPCC assessments.
A surprising finding
In the clear waters off Kenya's coast, coral reefs are thriving, offering a rare positive signal in ocean conservation. A new study by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Macquarie University, presented on Tuesday at the Our Ocean conference in Mombasa, maps 166,000 square kilometres of reef, roughly a third of the global total, as particularly climate-resilient. The research, currently under peer review and funded by a Bloomberg philanthropies programme, suggests these reefs can persist through major warming events.
- Total global reefs
- 498000 km²
- Resilient reefs
- 166000 km²
Challenging IPCC projections
The findings push back against the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world's top climate authority, which has stated that 70–90% of reefs could die at 1.5°C warming above pre‑industrial levels, and 99% at 2°C.
Our models are showing a much more hopeful future for corals reefs. We predict that there are many climate resilient reefs around the world that will persist over time.
Still, only 28% of those resilient reefs currently receive active protection.
Kenya's model for conservation
On the paradisiacal Wasini‑Mkwiro island, local villagers demonstrate what that protection can look like. Fishermen's catches are weighed, measured and logged by village data collectors. Members of the beach management unit patrol the waters to prevent overfishing and destructive gear, while others plant seaweed and mangroves, and remove rubbish.
We want to keep this ecosystem as pristine as possible because we know the benefits.
Karanja, a Kenya Wildlife Service warden for the neighbouring Kisite marine park, notes the importance of tourism and fishing. The park earned a Gold‑Level Blue Park Award from the US‑based Marine Conservation Institute in 2021.
How reefs survive
Coral bleaching kicks in when water temperatures rise by just 1–2°C, stressing the coral's animal tissues and causing them to expel the symbiotic algae. The new study identifies several resilience mechanisms: some reefs sit in naturally cool spots, others have evolved heat tolerance, and a few recover unusually fast after bleaching episodes. The WCS team describes the reef response to heat as ‘more nuanced than we previously thought’.
