Record 7.4 million Texans vote early as midterms near amid Alaska ballot fight

Final pitches with Trump on the ballot in spirit

All House seats and nearly a third of the Senate are contested on Tuesday, 3 November, in a vote widely seen as a referendum on Donald Trump, who is not on the ballot himself. Polls suggest Republicans are likely to lose the House and perhaps the Senate. Democrats are closing on affordability and corruption, while Republicans warn of socialism and transgender issues. Trump's approval ratings are at all-time lows, yet Republicans still treat him as their best surrogate.

On Saturday, 31 October, Trump spent the day phoning into tele-rallies and hosting a jungle-themed Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago. Reporters asked about his outfit, and he replied:

“I had 10 minutes, so I came as Donald Trump.”

He is due to hold rallies in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday, 1 November, after canceling them earlier and rescheduling them following criticism. At a rally in Virginia on Saturday, 31 October, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pledged that Democrats would reverse Medicaid cuts, end the war in Iran and restore enhanced ACA premium subsidies if they win a House majority.

A Black vote surge and record early turnout

Early and absentee votes are climbing fast, and the story of Black voters is what sources call the 'Blacklash'. The shift began with the 2025 elections, when Democrats won larger-than-expected margins in Virginia and New Jersey, and continued with strong primary turnout early this year. Black voters are reacting to the White House-led push to redraw minority-heavy districts and to the Supreme Court's gutting of the Voting Rights Act. Former President Bill Clinton, who spoke to POLITICO on Friday, 30 October, in Tupelo, Mississippi, said Trump had tried to neuter Black voters and had turned the Justice Department into a political operation. He described how historically discriminated-against groups read the mood around them:

“Historically discriminated-against groups have an uncanny feel detector to them.”

For Black voters and everyone else, the cost of living is the biggest driver, since gas and groceries cost the same for every voter.

Texas, where independents decide the race

A record 7.4 million Texans voted early, giving Democrats an apparent turnout lead, although Texas voters do not register by party. Analysts estimate affiliation from the primary a voter chose, and they count those who skipped primaries as independents. Democrats outvoted Republicans early in urban counties, Republicans led in suburban and rural areas, and independents outnumbered both parties. Steven David, a nonpartisan early-voting expert based in the Houston area, summed up his analysis this way:

“Democrats lead in Texas's big counties. Republicans lead everywhere else. Independents decide it.”

David said 54 percent of independents would need to vote Republican for the GOP to break even with Democrats, a result he called unlikely because independents usually split evenly. Tom Bonnier, a polling analyst at Target Smart, noted on X that most independent early voters did not vote in 2024 and that nearly half are Latino. In the Senate race, Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who has led slightly in polls for months and is vastly ahead in fundraising. Paxton's campaign has dropped a planned closing rally at the Alamo. Its event page says Paxton will spend Monday, 2 November, in Allen, Texas, roughly 300 miles away, and he will still appear on Sunday, 1 November, about 15 miles north of the Alamo.

Alaska and the same-name ballot dispute

The Justice Department sued Alaska on 22 October, asking a federal judge to block certification of the Senate race if Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, loses by a margin smaller than the votes for a challenger with the same name. On Friday, 30 October, the department asked the court to order ballots that may be affected by voter confusion segregated. That request followed a New York Times report, published on Wednesday, 28 October, that Democratic nominee Mary Peltola's campaign helped recruit a retired teacher named Dan J. Sullivan onto the ballot to dilute support for the incumbent. Peltola's campaign denies the allegations, and federal prosecutors are investigating the claims. On Saturday, 31 October, Alaska's attorney general's office told the court the demands were 'inappropriate and not even possible', and it called separating the ballots 'both disturbing and impossible'. The state's Republican governor has not committed to certifying the result if Peltola wins, and Trump has repeated his call for her prosecution.

Michigan Democrats split over El-Sayed

Rep. Haley Stevens released a statement late on Saturday, 31 October, urging Michigan to 'go vote!' in the Senate race. The statement followed days of public criticism of Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly beat her in the primary. Stevens had pressed him to condemn more forcefully an ad from the liberal outside group Rebellion PAC that blames Israel for high grocery prices, and she conditioned her future support on it. El-Sayed said the ad did not speak for him and, on Saturday afternoon, told reporters he did not support its contents. Stevens's statement did not name him but welcomed that position and said constituents deserved that kind of leadership. Her fiancé said he would vote for Republican Mike Rogers and suggested she might do the same.