Swedish election heads to tight finish as Kristersson opens cabinet to Sweden Democrats

A tight race for the Riksdag

On Sunday, 13 September 2026, approximately eight million eligible voters in Sweden will head to the polls for parliamentary, regional, and local elections, following early voting that opened on 26 August. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of the Moderate Party seeks a second term at the head of the governing coalition, which currently comprises the Moderates, the Christian Democrats, and the Liberals. Kristersson faces a challenge from the centre-left opposition led by former prime minister and Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson. Recent polling indicates a narrowing gap between the two main political blocs after months of centre-left polling leads. A survey conducted by Ipsos places the four-party centre-left coalition at 49.3% of the vote and the four right-wing parties at 49.0%, which projects to a 175 to 174 seat division in the 349-seat Riksdag.

The rise of the Sweden Democrats

The election could result in the direct entry of the nationalist Sweden Democrats into government for the first time. Led by Jimmie Åkesson since 2005, the party entered parliament in 2010 with 5% of the vote and reached 20.5% in the 2022 election, subsequently providing external support to Kristersson under the 2022 Tidö agreement. On 11 September 2026, Kristersson stated that Åkesson's party would be included in the cabinet if the right-wing bloc wins a parliamentary majority. Kristersson defended the formal coalition partnership ahead of the vote.

There is nothing dramatic in this. It is clear to everyone that we have worked together successfully for four years.

Political science researchers note that the electoral growth of the Sweden Democrats altered national debates on asylum and immigration. Patrik Öhberg, an associate professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg, noted that mainstream parties adjusted their rhetoric on border policy in response.

Even the Social Democrats argue that Sweden must return to what it was before and as it has always been. So they use almost the same rhetoric.

Law enforcement and welfare debates

Public safety and immigration integration form central themes of the election campaign. The incumbent coalition campaigned on reducing gang violence, pointing to police figures showing that shootings dropped from 276 in the first eight months of 2022 to 53 in the corresponding period of 2026. In local administration, the Sweden Democrats currently control about a dozen municipalities, including Uddevalla, a municipality of 57,000 residents north of Gothenburg. In Uddevalla, municipal authorities reinstated traditional home cooking in school cafeterias and instituted mandatory Swedish language examinations for elderly care workers, leading to the termination of the 10% of staff who failed to pass the assessment.

European implications and parliamentary math

The parliamentary arithmetic remains sensitive to small swings among minor parties and coalition partners. A poll by Novus and TV4 recorded opposition backing at 50.3% against 47.7% for the government and its external partners, while the Liberal Party registered between 5% and 5.8%, placing them above the 4% parliamentary entry threshold. For the Party of European Socialists, an Andersson victory would expand their representation on the European Council, where centre-left leaders currently hold three seats compared to 12 held by the European People's Party. Sweden, with a population of 10.7 million, abandoned formal neutrality to join NATO in 2024 and represents over 3% of the European Union's gross domestic product.