Sweden votes in tight election as right-wing bloc prepares potential cabinet role for Sweden Democrats

A tight race for parliament

More than eight million eligible voters in Sweden will cast ballots on Sunday to elect 349 members of the Riksdag. Polling indicates a narrowing contest between the governing right-wing bloc and the centre-left opposition. A survey by the Novus institute places the centre-left bloc at 50.3% and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's conservative coalition with the Sweden Democrats at 47.9%. The gap between the two sides was 10 percentage points three weeks prior. Individual polling shows the Social Democrats leading with 28.6% to 30% of the vote, followed by the Sweden Democrats at 18% to 19% and the Moderate Party at 18%. Four parties (the Left Party, the Centre Party, the Greens, and the Christian Democrats) each poll around 7%.

Potential coalition with the Sweden Democrats

Kristersson, the 62-year-old leader of the Moderate Party who took office in October 2022, is seeking a second four-year term. In 2022, his minority coalition with the Christian Democrats and Liberals governed under the Tidö Agreement, relying on external parliamentary backing from the Sweden Democrats without granting them ministerial posts. For this election, the four parties agreed that the Sweden Democrats would enter government and receive cabinet portfolios if the right-wing bloc secures a majority. Political scientist Mats Engström analyzed the institutional change.

The 2022 Tidö agreement broke a taboo; for the first time, the Sweden Democrats have exercised formal influence over a government, although without joining the cabinet.

Consensus on strict migration policy

Migration policy forms a central campaign topic where both primary blocs have embraced restrictive measures. Magdalena Andersson, leader of the Social Democrats, adopted strict border and integration positions similar to those of Denmark's government.

Sweden needs a strict and restrictive migration policy.

Foreign-born residents represent 20.8% of the country's 10.6 million inhabitants, up from 11.3% in 2000, with nearly two-thirds holding Swedish citizenship. Under Kristersson's administration, the government eliminated permanent residency for asylum seekers and restricted welfare access. Initial asylum applications dropped from 12,498 in 2023 to 9,645 in 2024 and 6,737 in 2025. The Swedish Migration Agency projects approximately 4,200 initial applications for 2026.

Gang violence and internal security

Organized crime and gang violence remain dominant issues for voters across the country. Police estimate that more than 60,000 individuals maintain connections to criminal networks as active members or associates. Gun homicides fell from 62 in 2022 to 53 in 2023 and 45 in 2024. In the first eight months of 2026, Sweden registered 48 firearm attacks and 12 deaths. However, explosive incidents expanded, with authorities recording 317 bombings in 2024, more than double the total from 2023. Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer addressed the security situation following an August shooting in Södertälje.

Although we have reduced shootings by 80%, the violence is still there, bubbling under the surface.

In Södertälje, five people have died from gunshot wounds since 2022, alongside ten bombings in 2026. Södertälje councillor Elof Hansjons warned that judging gang power purely through shooting statistics is misleading, as stronger criminal groups often reduce violence to avoid police attention.