Swedish opposition leads parliamentary projection by one seat after initial exit poll

In Sweden's parliamentary election concluded on Sunday, a forecast published by public broadcaster SVT projects the four-party opposition bloc led by the Social Democrats to secure 175 seats, giving them a one-seat lead over the right-wing bloc. An earlier SVT exit poll released immediately after polling stations closed had pointed to a broader opposition victory with 183 seats, but the updated projection, based on early counted votes processed by a forecast algorithm, narrowed the margin.

Under the projection, the opposition grouping of the Social Democrats, Left Party, Centre Party, and Green Party holds 175 seats. The governing center-right coalition of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's Moderate Party, the Christian Democrats, and the Liberals, alongside the Sweden Democrats, is projected at 174 seats. Leaders of the main political parties did not immediately comment on the figures.

Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson, who served as prime minister in 2021-2022 and guided Sweden's 2022 NATO accession application, is positioned as the primary candidate to lead a potential new government. Forming a governing majority presents programmatic differences between the Left Party and the Centre Party, particularly regarding ministerial posts sought by the Left Party and opposed by the Centre Party. Unlike previous campaigns where migration and crime dominated, the 2026 election focused heavily on economic and social policy.