Stay Out campaign claims EU rejoining would cost £750m a week ahead of UK-EU summit

Burnham's push for closer EU ties

Prime Minister Andy Burnham is pursuing closer ties with the EU, but he has dampened talk of rejoining after grumbling among his MPs and Cabinet colleagues. Inews reports that a deal said to be '95 per cent there' is close, and Burnham has warned that negotiators face 'long nights ahead' to get it over the line. He is reportedly prepared to make significant concessions to close the gap. Burnham entered Downing Street in July intending to focus on domestic issues such as the cost of living, but his decision to prioritise the EU has pulled him into a heavy travel schedule.

He flew to the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, on 12 November, then went directly to the European Political Community summit in Dublin. There he held talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni to prepare the ground for the UK-EU summit in Brussels on 20 November, where the deal is expected to be signed. Telling journalists he was 'hopeful' of getting a deal, he has argued that a 'win-win' agreement can be struck with the EU.

Northern Ireland poll

A Queen's University Belfast poll carried out by LucidTalk between 23 and 26 October used a weighted sample of 1,050 respondents across Northern Ireland. It found 52% of voters agree the UK should rejoin the EU and take on the same obligations as other member states, against 38% opposed. Support is highest among SDLP (88%), Sinn Féin (86%) and Alliance (83%) voters, while TUV voters were the most opposed. The study is the 16th in the Testing The Temperature series, led by Professor David Phinnemore and Professor Katy Hayward. Support for the Windsor Framework, the post-Brexit arrangement between the UK and the EU, is weakening: 45% see it as 'on balance a good thing for Northern Ireland', the lowest level since June 2021, and only 44% think it is an appropriate way to manage Brexit's effects, down from 60% in February 2024.

Good thing for Northern Ireland, Oct 202645%

Appropriate for managing Brexit, Oct 202644%

Appropriate for managing Brexit, Feb 202460%

Good thing for Northern Ireland, Oct 2026

45 %

Appropriate for managing Brexit, Oct 2026

44 %

Appropriate for managing Brexit, Feb 2024

60 %

Data from the article text

Further findings show 77% of respondents want 'serious dialogue' about the UK's long-term relationship with the EU, while 69% say there is not enough information for an informed public debate. Almost two-thirds, 63%, say Brexit has been more disruptive than they expected in 2016. More than three-quarters also welcome a summit agreement that would ease checks on goods travelling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

Stay Out's cost claim

Stay Out, a pressure group chaired by Oliver Lewis, launched on 13 November to oppose efforts to rejoin the bloc. The BBC reports that Lewis worked for Vote Leave and acted as deputy chief negotiator for the UK government in trade talks with the EU. The group's analysis puts the cost of rejoining at £39.3bn a year in contributions, or £750m a week, a figure it says exceeds the £350m a week Brexit supporters once claimed membership cost. Those calculations are the group's own, and BBC News has not independently verified them. Lord Gove, chairman of the Vote Leave campaign during the 2016 referendum, has backed the group and warned that reopening the question would commit the country to another decade of fractious negotiations.

“Rejoining would mean handing back control of our laws, borders, money and trade, and paying a good deal more for membership than we did before.”

Lewis framed the campaign as a call to end the debate. Burnham, for his part, has said Brexit has done 'more harm than good' but has ruled out changes to the UK's relationship with the EU before the next general election. Asked in September whether he wanted the UK to rejoin, he said he wanted to 'look at the options', while acknowledging he had once advocated rejoining within his lifetime, though he said that was 'not necessarily the case that that is now'.

Summit and next steps

The Brussels summit on 20 November is expected to produce agreements on food, energy and youth mobility. Reporting on the meeting indicates that neither London nor Brussels expects it to open negotiations on rejoining, with sector-specific deals instead bringing the UK closer to EU rules in areas such as agriculture, defence and youth mobility. The poll, the Stay Out launch and the summit fall within a few weeks of one another, which places the rejoining debate at the centre of the UK-EU agenda.