CaixaBank Research sees Spanish growth slowing to 2% in 2027 from 2.6% in 2026

Growth forecast

CaixaBank Research expects the Spanish economy to grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, a slowdown of six tenths of a point that still leaves Spain ahead of the eurozone. The bank presented its Perspectivas Económicas 2027 report in Barcelona on Monday, 9 November, with chief economist Enric Fernández and Oriol Aspachs, director of Spanish economics, among the speakers. The eurozone is forecast to grow 1% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, although one version of the same figures gives 1.6% for 2027, so that number is not uniform across the coverage. The bank had cut its 2026 Spain estimate to 2.1% when the war in Iran broke out, after starting the year at 2.4%, and has now raised it back to 2.6%. For the world economy, the bank expects 3.3% growth in 2027, up from 3% in 2026.

Spain 20262.6%

Spain 20272%

Eurozone 20261%

Spain 2026

2.6 %

Spain 2027

2 %

Eurozone 2026

1 %

Data from the article text

Resilience through a chain of shocks

Fernández described the economy as resilient despite a run of shocks, naming the pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the tariff war and the war in Iran. He credited a cushion against higher oil prices to inventories built up by companies and China, output gains in countries not directly hit by the Middle East war, a lower reliance on fossil fuels and fiscal measures by governments, Spain's included. He also pointed to the boom in AI investment as a tailwind for the world economy. The bank's chief economist put the oil point in plain terms.

“Oil at 100 dollars is not the same now as it was 30 years ago.”

Domestic strengths and drivers for 2027

The bank cites a favourable labour market, a high household savings rate, household debt at 41%, below the EU average, and a public deficit that has been brought down as fundamentals for Spain. Renewable energy deployment has softened the energy shock and is expected to do so again in 2027. The slowdown next year is explained mainly by the lagged impact of the 2026 energy shock. Population growth, slightly under 1% and adding around half a point to GDP, along with EU Next Generation funds, easing energy prices and residential investment, is expected to keep growth going. The bank also expects new-build building permits to rise close to 10% in 2027.

Population growth0.5

EU Next Generation funds0.2

Easing energy prices0.2

Residential investment0.1

Population growth

0.5 percentage points

EU Next Generation funds

0.2 percentage points

Easing energy prices

0.2 percentage points

Residential investment

0.1 percentage points

Data from the article text

Headwinds and assumptions

The report lists three important headwinds, the first being a weak international environment. Fernández warned that forecasting in this climate is a risky exercise.

“Forecasts are more about understanding than about getting it right.”

Risks include renewed energy problems if conflict in the Middle East flares again, and a possible loss of momentum in technology investment if profitability expectations are revised. The bank expects central banks to raise interest rates two more times, and it flags fragile fiscal positions in countries such as France. Its 2027 assumptions put average oil at 78.5 dollars per barrel and gas at 45 euros per megawatt hour.