Spahn's successor to be decided next Wednesday as Merz and Söder weigh three reshuffle scenarios

The timeline

Jens Spahn resigned as head of the 208-member CDU/CSU Bundestag faction, and the succession will be decided in a special session next Wednesday, 29 July, at 14:00. The nine-day window between Monday's announcement of the special session and the vote itself has opened a period of intense speculation in Berlin. Party leaders Friedrich Merz (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) will present a joint proposal to the faction, which will then vote.

When will the proposal come?

Merz gave contradictory signals on Tuesday during a press conference at the Chancellery. He first promised to make a proposal with Söder "soon," then added, "We will also take a little more time with this." Despite the mixed messaging, the expectation is that the two party chairs will not keep their plan secret until the faction meeting, but will communicate it first to the faction and then to the public, possibly still this week. The calendar supports this: the CSU state group holds its retreat at Banz Monastery in Franconia on Monday and Tuesday, making a parallel announcement awkward.

The candidates

Chancellery chief Thorsten Frei remains the top favourite. Health Minister Nina Warken, CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann, and faction vice-chair Günter Krings (all CDU) are also named. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt is considered nearly ruled out because he belongs to the CSU, which has never provided a faction chair, the post traditionally goes to the much larger of the two sister parties. Whether one of the four named CDU figures gets the job is not yet certain; the articles note a "big surprise" remains possible.

Three reshuffle scenarios

Three variants are on the table. The small solution: the new chief comes from within the faction, requiring no further personnel changes, the Krings model. The medium solution: the successor comes from the cabinet or a senior party role (Frei, Warken, or Linnemann), forcing Merz and Söder to fill at least two posts. The large solution involves a broader cabinet reshuffle. Merz told ZDF's "Sommerinterview" on Sunday that "it could be an opportunity to think again about the government's lineup," though too many changes carry the risk of new uncertainties. The medium variant is currently considered the most probable.

The federal presidency in the background

The articles suggest Merz and Söder may already be discussing the federal presidency. Frank-Walter Steinmeier's successor will be elected in January, and the Union and SPD are expected to hold a majority in the Federal Assembly. After Steinmeier (SPD), the Union would be next in line. The proposal is not due until after the state elections in September, but Söder has already floated Bavarian state parliament president Ilse Aigner (CSU) as a candidate.