Pyongyang's border warning

Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said on Monday, 19 October, that the situation along the southern border was grave. In a statement carried by the state news agency KCNA, she said the North Korean military was weighing the deployment of more tactical strike means in the area, along with a return of propaganda broadcasts over loudspeakers. She did not say what weapons were meant. She accused South Korea of having crossed a red line since the mine blasts, pointing to warning shots, loudspeaker broadcasts and the dispute over the explosions.

“A grave situation is prevailing along the southern border due to the reckless behavior of the ROK military gangsters.”

According to Pyongyang, South Korean forces regularly fire warning shots at North Korean soldiers who are building border fortifications, citing an alleged crossing of the military demarcation line. The North Korean statement also said Seoul had made the shots and broadcasts a pretext for its actions.

The figures and the mine dispute

The counts in the statement differ by period. Polish outlets report 201 warning shots and more than 2,800 loudspeaker broadcasts from August to mid-October, while another account of the statement gives 91 warning shots and 998 broadcast messages between 1 and 17 October. The dispute began with the explosions of 21 September, which injured three South Korean soldiers inside the Demilitarized Zone. A joint investigation by South Korea and the United Nations Command concluded in October that North Korean-planted mines caused the blasts. Pyongyang rejects that finding and accuses Seoul of manipulating the investigation results.

Seoul's response

On Tuesday, 20 October, the South Korean military called North Korea's claim that its legitimate operational measures were a provocation unacceptable. It also rejected the charge that it was baselessly assigning blame for the escalation. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Jin Yong-sung ordered the military to respond with firm determination to any new North Korean provocation, according to a written statement. South Korea also vowed to step up military operations to strengthen its control over the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone. The South Korean military said North Korean soldiers had violated the military demarcation line 50 times this year during fortification work, and that it had answered with warning shots and broadcasts.

Wider tensions

North Korea, which possesses nuclear weapons, stepped up weapons tests in the days before Kim's statement, including a torpedo system of a new type that it says uses artificial intelligence to detect and track targets. Kim also criticised the administration of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, saying that despite pledges of reconciliation and peace it was sharpening confrontation with the North. Both Koreas formally remain at war, because the 1950-1953 conflict ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty. North Korea has intensified mining of the DMZ since early 2024, and Kim Jong Un has declared South Korea its 'main enemy'. In 2015, mine blasts blamed on the North maimed two South Korean soldiers and pushed the two Koreas to the brink of armed conflict, after the South resumed front-line loudspeaker broadcasts for the first time in 11 years.