South Korea estimates North Korea holds up to 120 nuclear warheads, contrasting with Trump tally

Differing nuclear estimates

South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back told a parliamentary committee on Thursday that North Korea is estimated to possess between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads. Ahn clarified that the figures originate from private research organizations and cannot be officially confirmed by the South Korean military. The assessment diverges from figures presented a day earlier by US President Donald Trump, who stated that Pyongyang holds 57 nuclear weapons. When asked about Trump's statement, Ahn noted that the numbers appeared somewhat different and declined to comment on whether the US remarks amounted to official recognition of North Korea's nuclear status. Independent research also reflects varying counts; in June, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that North Korea had assembled around 60 warheads and possessed enough fissile material to produce at least 30 more. South Korea maintains its policy of seeking peninsula denuclearization and does not officially recognize Pyongyang as a nuclear-armed state.

We generally estimate the number to be between 80 and 120, but it is quite difficult to determine an exact number.

Summit preparations and White House remarks

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday during a tour of a helipad under construction on the White House South Lawn, Trump confirmed intentions to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before the end of the year. According to reporting by AFP, talks could occur in November on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Trump instructed aides to arrange face-to-face negotiations as early as autumn. Trump previously held three direct meetings with Kim during his 2017–2021 presidential term, comprising summits in 2018 and 2019 alongside a brief meeting in the Demilitarized Zone.

I know Kim Jong Un very well, and he will be fine as long as we have a smart president.

Disputed diplomatic communications

Diplomatic exchanges surrounding the proposed summit generated conflicting accounts between Washington and Pyongyang. Trump stated on Monday that Kim had responded positively to outreach aimed at restarting direct dialogue. However, Kim Yo Jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, issued a statement on Wednesday evening through state media denying knowledge of any recent communication between the two leaders. While acknowledging personal rapport between Trump and Kim, she stated that broader American security policies continue to threaten North Korea.

Our head of state has pleasant memories and feelings toward Trump. However, the hostile policy of the US remains unchanged.

Reductions to joint military exercises

The diplomatic moves follow Trump's order on Sunday directing the Pentagon to reduce American participation in annual joint military maneuvers with South Korea. In his directive, Trump described the joint drills as costly and inappropriate, adding that North Korea had acted in a non-threatening and respectful manner. The Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises, which commenced on Monday and were initially scheduled to run for 11 days, will conclude on Friday, ending six days earlier than planned. South Korea's Foreign Minister told lawmakers on Wednesday that the sudden curtailment caught Seoul by surprise. North Korea had previously characterized the joint drills as rehearsals for war, and Kim Yo Jong dismissed the curtailment as an ineffective gesture that leaves core tensions intact.