AfD polls at 43% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of eastern Germany state election

Polling and the parliamentary threshold

On 6 September 2026, approximately 1.7 million eligible voters in Saxony-Anhalt will participate in the regional parliament election. Pre-election polling places the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in first place with 43% of voter support. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by current State Premier Sven Schulze, holds second place with 22%. The socialist Left Party follows at 12%, the Social Democrats (SPD) poll at 7%, the Greens register at 5%, and the Free Democrats (FDP) stand at 3%. If smaller parties fail to reach the 5% electoral threshold required for parliamentary representation, the AfD could capture an absolute majority of seats in Magdeburg and govern without coalition partners.

Leadership and campaign manifesto

The AfD campaign is led by 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, a former CDU member who relies extensively on digital outreach across social media platforms. The party platform, titled "The Country First," was largely developed by 48-year-old regional strategist Hans-Thomas Tillschneider. The manifesto proposes abolishing the right to asylum, seizing cash and assets from asylum seekers, executing mass deportations, and segregating child refugees into separate school classes. It also calls for prison sentences for insulting German identity and seeks to ban the Antifa movement while rejecting climate action policies. Political scientist Sven Leunig from the University of Jena assessed the platform's social agenda:

It's a conservative-reactionary programme that proposes rolling back on 20 to 30 years of social progress, especially in recognition of the LGBTQ+ community and women's rights. It advocates a strongly anti-immigration stance and denies the urgency of acting on global warming.

Coalition stances and federal impact

Saxony-Anhalt has been governed since 2021 by a three-party coalition comprising the CDU, SPD, and FDP, following an election where the AfD secured 20% of the vote. In 2023, the regional Office for the Protection of the Constitution classified the state AfD branch as an extremist organisation. Federal CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz has ruled out forming coalitions with either the AfD or the Left Party at any level. Albrecht von Lucke, editor of the political journal Blätter, assessed the party's growth before the vote:

Nobody imagined that such a party could one day reach this level of popularity. We are now at the phase of normalisation before taking power.

Economic backdrop and regional factors

Voter dissatisfaction in the state of 2.1 million people connects partly to regional economic disparities. Saxony-Anhalt records higher unemployment and lower median earnings for full-time employees than the national German average. Out of the total population, just under 800,000 residents hold jobs subject to social security contributions. The state's economic base relies on manufacturing in the chemical triangle around Leuna, Merseburg, and Bitterfeld-Wolfen, as well as automotive supply engineering and tourism in destinations such as Quedlinburg and the Harz Mountains. Polling stations across the state will open on Sunday morning, with initial projections expected after voting concludes.