Lithuania warns Russia is planning kinetic attacks on critical infrastructure in Poland and the Baltics

Intelligence warnings from the Baltic capitals

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda went public on 15 July 2026 with intelligence reports indicating that Russia is planning kinetic operations against critical infrastructure. In an interview with Baltic News Service (BNS), he said the signals come from the country's own intelligence services. 'We have such signals, which we receive from our services. They do not clearly identify place or time, because the opponent is not at the end of its planning, and we only know about the planning or the goal,' Nauseda stated. He characterised the expected operations as 'selective' rather than large-scale, aimed at physically damaging energy and transport sites.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics reinforced the warning during a joint press conference with Nauseda in Vilnius. 'Information we are getting from Lithuanian, Latvian and other NATO states, from various agencies there, shows various attempts to do sabotage and to lower the security in our states,' Rinkevics said. He did not specify which countries had been targeted by the reported attempts.

Lithuania tightens security at energy and transport sites

As a direct consequence of the intelligence, Vilnius announced it is boosting security around energy and transport infrastructure. Nauseda told BNS that the country is preparing for 'a wide range of possible attacks' that could disrupt the functioning of key facilities. He stressed that the sites are important not only in themselves but because 'they guarantee the functioning of the entire system, in particular our synchronisation with the continental European electricity grid'.

Lithuania shares land borders with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and with Belarus, whose leader Aleksandr Lukashenko is a close ally of the Kremlin. Nauseda noted that the country has tripled its defence spending since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022.

Anything that halts the functioning of these sites is important, because they are not only important in themselves but also because they guarantee the functioning of the entire system, in particular our synchronisation with the continental European electricity grid.

Poland's earlier alert and the 2025 rail sabotage

The Lithuanian disclosure follows a warning from neighbouring Poland earlier in July 2026, when Western intelligence agencies expressed concern about the risk of Russian attacks against Polish territory and the Baltic states. The region has recent experience with such tactics: at the end of 2025, Poland suffered sabotage on its railway network. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said at the time that Russia had 'crossed a certain line' and described the incidents as 'State terrorism'.

Those events, attributed by Warsaw to a Russian destabilisation strategy, gave concrete form to a threat pattern that until then had remained largely in the realm of intelligence assessments. The latest Lithuanian intelligence appears to indicate that Moscow is preparing a new round of selective strikes.

Kremlin rejects allegations as 'scare stories'

Moscow responded swiftly. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on 15 July that the accusations are 'simply the latest batch of scare stories designed to continue brainwashing the population and preparing it for further militarisation'. He argued that the Baltic states need to portray Russia as an enemy in order to justify the continued build-up of NATO military infrastructure 'in all its forms across the Baltic states'.

This is simply the latest batch of scare stories designed to continue brainwashing the population and preparing it for further militarisation.

Peskov maintained that the narrative serves as a pretext for the region's ongoing militarisation. Moscow has consistently denied accusations of planning or carrying out sabotage and other attacks on countries outside Ukraine, dismissing such reports as part of an anti-Russian propaganda campaign.

A familiar pattern of hybrid tension

The exchange fits into a long-running pattern of mutual accusations between Russia and NATO's eastern flank. The Baltic states have repeatedly warned of Russian hybrid warfare, while the Kremlin accuses NATO of expanding military infrastructure close to its borders. The Lithuanian intelligence disclosure comes at a moment when several European countries have voiced similar concerns, and it adds a new layer of urgency to security planning along the alliance's eastern edge.