Lithuanian defense minister warns Poland and Baltics are Russia's next targets after Ukraine failures

Warning from Vilnius

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas told public broadcaster LRT on Monday that Russia's war in Ukraine is not unfolding as the Kremlin planned. Ukrainian drones regularly strike critical infrastructure inside Russia, destroying refineries and other facilities, while Russian advances on the front are minimal and on some sections Russian forces are retreating under Ukrainian pressure. Explosions are now heard inside Russia, fuel shortages are appearing, and Russian society is beginning to question the regime. Kaunas argued that President Vladimir Putin needs a new escalation and a new victory, and that the Baltic region and Poland are the most immediate targets.

The war in Ukraine is not going according to Russia's plans, and today explosions are heard in Russia itself, there are fuel shortages. Russian society is already questioning the Kremlin regime, asking why this is happening and where the promised victory is.

Putin needs a new escalation, a new victory, and the Baltic region, Poland, is the closest target in this case.

Intelligence and earlier reports

Kaunas's statement follows confirmation by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda of intelligence reports that have circulated for weeks. Nausėda said the assessments point to possible Russian attacks on critical regional infrastructure, using both conventional and unconventional means. The president noted that the intelligence does not specify a precise time or location, only the planning and intent.

The first warnings emerged at the end of June, when Polish outlet Onet, citing sources close to Polish services, reported a risk of a limited military provocation against Poland. On 3 July, the British daily The Telegraph reported that the United States had warned Poland about a possible Russian provocation. Scenarios under analysis included drone or missile strikes on critical infrastructure, attacks on energy facilities, hybrid operations along the border, and a limited incursion by Russian or Belarusian soldiers onto Polish territory.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski had earlier suggested that Russia could stage a false flag operation using Ukrainian drones. The BNS news agency recalled that remark in its coverage of Kaunas's interview.

Poland's response

Polish Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that the Council of Ministers' security committee will convene on Tuesday, 21 July, with the Russian provocation threat as the main agenda item. The meeting comes as Warsaw absorbs the latest warnings from its NATO ally.

Lithuania's defensive measures

Lithuanian army chief General Raimundas Vaiksnoras said on Sunday that there is currently no visible conventional military threat against Lithuania or the other Baltic states. However, he cautioned that provocations using military means cannot be ruled out. Western allies, he added, share similar intelligence assessments.

In response to the heightened threat, Lithuania has increased protection of its transport and energy infrastructure. Security has been reinforced around bridges, electrical substations, gas supply systems, and communication nodes. Kaunas stressed that Lithuania's efforts to strengthen its defense and deepen integration with NATO and the European Union do not constitute a provocation against Russia.

We are a sovereign state, we are a member of NATO, the European Union, and we decide to strengthen our defense, strengthen our armed forces, and deepen integration with Western civilized states, and this in no way should provoke Russia.

What comes next

The sequence of warnings, from the end of June through the US alert and now the Lithuanian defense minister's public statement, has put the region on heightened alert. The Polish security committee meeting on Tuesday is expected to review the intelligence and coordinate a response. For now, NATO allies are treating the threat as credible but not imminent in conventional military terms.