Rio Tinto half-year profit rises 43% on copper strength, AI demand

Earnings surge

Rio Tinto reported underlying earnings of $6.85 billion for the six months to June 30, a 43% increase from $4.81 billion a year earlier. The result slightly exceeded the Visible Alpha consensus of $6.80 billion. Net profit rose 47% to $6.66 billion, while free cash flow climbed 75% to $3.8 billion.

Seven months on, this is the evidence.

The performance marks a sharp turnaround from the first half of 2025, when underlying earnings sank to a five-year low of $4.8 billion, weighed down by weak iron ore prices and cyclone disruptions.

Copper drives growth

The copper division was the standout, with underlying EBITDA rising 84% to $5.7 billion, partly driven by higher output from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia. Copper, aluminium and lithium operations together accounted for 57% of first-half EBITDA, reflecting Rio's pivot toward industrial minerals tied to renewable energy and electrification.

Iron ore, the company's traditional profit engine, saw underlying EBITDA ease 1% to $6.8 billion. The slight decline was attributed to operational issues at its Canadian business, which CEO Simon Trott said would take time to resolve. Trott also pointed to better use of data and AI in developing the Mongolian underground copper mine and improving reliability at Australian iron ore operations.

Cost-cutting and dividend

Rio Tinto credited $870 million in productivity benefits for the improved result, part of a cost-cutting and divestment programme launched in December. The company has put smaller businesses, including borates and titanium, up for sale while cutting costs at core operations. Trott said the company expected savings to reach $1.8 billion by year-end, with more to come.

There's substantially more to come.

The board declared an interim dividend of $2.11 per share, up from $1.48 a year ago, a 43% increase. The total payout to shareholders will be $3.4 billion.

Market context

The strong result came despite headwinds from China's economic slowdown, US tariff campaigns and conflict in the Middle East, which have weighed on global commodity markets. Higher prices for copper and other industrial metals more than offset those pressures. Rio Tinto shares opened 4% higher in Sydney following the announcement.

AI demand outlook

Trott highlighted booming demand for commodities from AI-related energy and data centre investments. He noted that hyperscalers such as Meta and Alphabet are collectively forecast to spend $1 trillion building data centres next year.

That's a lot of copper, steel, lithium and aluminium.

Rio Tinto's growing exposure to these metals positions it to benefit from the electrification and digital infrastructure build-out, even as iron ore demand faces longer-term uncertainty.