Rheinmetall cuts 2026 sales outlook to €13.2bn as shares fall over 17%

Second cut this year

Rheinmetall now expects 2026 sales of about €13.2bn, down from its earlier target range of €13.7bn to €14.2bn, and it lowered its operating margin outlook from roughly 19 percent to 18.5 percent. The company disclosed the change in a mandatory notice on Wednesday evening, 4 November, ahead of its quarterly report on Thursday. It is the second time in 2026 that the Düsseldorf-based group has trimmed its guidance. In August it cut its sales forecast by €300 million after Berlin scrapped a frigate project. Handelsblatt and WirtschaftsWoche describe the latest move as the second profit warning within three months.

Strong nine-month results

Despite the cut, the first nine months of 2026 were strong. Sales rose 38 percent to €8.4bn, and operating profit reached about €1.3bn, a figure the company described as a record. Handelsblatt reports that sales were more than €2bn above the prior-year period, while the margin before interest and tax rose from 11.2 to 14.1 percent. Chief executive Armin Papperger said the group was growing strongly with high profitability.

“We have very good growth with high profitability and are therefore also internationally leading in the industry comparison.”

The Arminius delay

The main driver is the Arminius project, under which the Bundeswehr plans to buy about 1,800 Boxer armoured vehicles to be supplied by Rheinmetall and its joint-venture partner. The company had counted on the contract being placed this year, but the Financial Times reports that it is still in the final phase of negotiations. According to RP Online, planned down payments from the client are now missing from the accounts. Rheinmetall's share of the order has previously been put at more than €12bn, plus roughly €4bn for a service contract. With options for further vehicle rounds, the maximum potential value for Rheinmetall rises above €38bn, according to the FT. NDR reports that the company also cited delays in artillery ammunition deliveries and in Boxer deliveries.

Earlier target, upper end14.2

Earlier target, lower end13.7

New forecast13.2

Earlier target, upper end

14.2 €bn

Earlier target, lower end

13.7 €bn

New forecast

13.2 €bn

Data from the article text

Shares and analysts

Shares fell more than 17 percent in morning trade, according to RP Online and Handelsblatt. WirtschaftsWoche reported an intraday drop of more than 18 percent to €818.70, making Rheinmetall the biggest loser in the Dax. Citi cut its price target for the stock from €1,408 to €1,374 but kept its buy recommendation. The sell-off came even though the operating result improved sharply, and the company has been among the largest beneficiaries of European defence spending since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Political profile

Armin Papperger has become a frequent contact for politicians since the war in Ukraine began. WirtschaftsWoche notes that former chancellor Olaf Scholz broke ground on an ammunition plant in Unterlüß with him in 2024. Rheinmetall has expanded its production capacity considerably in response to higher defence budgets across Europe. Rheinmetall expects the Arminius contract to be placed next year, according to WirtschaftsWoche.