Parti Québécois leads polls ahead of Quebec election with conditional referendum plan

Polling and projected parliamentary seats

Quebec voters head to the polls on Monday, 5 October 2026, to elect members of the provincial National Assembly. Polling stations across the province of 9 million residents open from 09:30 to 20:00 local time (13:30 to 00:00 GMT), with approximately 6.4 million citizens eligible to cast ballots. Elections Quebec reported that nearly one-quarter of eligible electors already voted during advance polling periods. The general election follows the January 2026 resignation of Premier François Legault, whose centre-right Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) had governed the province since 2018.

According to polling averages compiled by Poliwave, the sovereignist Parti Québécois (PQ), led by 49-year-old lawyer Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, leads voting intentions with 29.4%. The federalist Quebec Liberal Party, led by Charles Milliard, follows at 23.2%, while the governing CAQ, led by Christine Fréchette, stands in third place with 18.4%.

Projections compiled by the Polling Canada aggregator indicate that the Parti Québécois could win 65 seats, securing a working legislative majority. The Quebec Liberal Party is projected to take 36 seats, the Conservative Party of Quebec 17 seats, Québec Solidaire seven seats, and the CAQ three seats, down from its previous standing of 76 seats in the legislature.

Referendum timetable and policy platform

The Parti Québécois last governed Quebec between 2012 and 2014 before spending twelve years in opposition. While the party has promised a third referendum on provincial sovereignty, following earlier votes in 1980 and 1995, Plamondon announced that any referendum will occur only after Donald Trump finishes his presidential term in January 2029. Plamondon stated that the current trade disputes between Canada and the United States do not offer "a calm climate to reflect on our future".

A recent opinion poll shows that 31% of Quebec residents support separation from Canada. Public opinion surveys indicate that backing for the Parti Québécois is primarily driven by voter dissatisfaction with healthcare delivery and the cost of living rather than constitutional secession. During the final stretch of the campaign, Plamondon also proposed removing the Canadian constitutional monarchy from Quebec institutions, conceding that the move could face judicial challenges, and asserted that Indigenous nations would not hold a veto over secession consultations.

Federal tensions and foreign interference reports

The provincial election presents immediate governance challenges for Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. In addition to potential constitutional friction with Quebec, the federal government faces a non-binding vote on 19 October in Alberta concerning a potential referendum on provincial secession. Canadian editorial coverage framed the political landscape as a severe test of national cohesion.

Canadians see that the country's unity is attacked from within in perilous times, when US threats to our sovereignty have become a cause for existential anxiety.

The election campaign also included controversies over potential external influence. On 25 September, reports cited documents from the US think tank Defense Analyses and Research Corporation describing alleged American funding and psychological operations aimed at supporting separatist movements in Quebec and Alberta. When questioned by TVA Nouvelles, the press office of Prime Minister Carney did not dispute the reporting. Plamondon rejected claims of foreign backing, announcing that if he forms a government, he will request federal security clearance vetting to permit intelligence agencies to examine his contacts and connections.