Portugal faces Croatia in World Cup last 32 after group-stage stumbles; Spain looms in potential last-16 clash

Group-stage letdown

Portugal advanced from Group K as runners-up, finishing behind Colombia after a goalless draw at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The performance drew sharp criticism: L'Equipe described it as lacking inspiration, while The Guardian noted Cristiano Ronaldo was easily neutralised. The result followed a 1-1 draw with DR Congo and a 5-0 opening win against Uzbekistan, leaving the team second in the group and setting up a more demanding knockout route.

“Portugal had a lacklustre performance against the South American vice-champions, who dominated possession but failed to score.”

The road through Croatia

Portugal now faces Croatia in the round of 32 at BMO Field in Toronto on 2 July (00:00 Friday in Lisbon). The two sides last met in a major tournament at Euro 2016, when Portugal won in extra time on the way to the title. This time the Opta supercomputer gives Portugal a 67.4% chance of advancing.

A bracket stacked with giants

If Portugal beats Croatia, a likely last-16 clash with Spain awaits in Arlington on 6 July. Spain, who face Austria or Algeria in their own round-of-32 tie, have only a 85.2% probability of advancing themselves according to Opta, but would be favourites against Portugal (54.4% vs 30.8%). Beyond that, the quarter-final would come from a group of Belgium, Senegal, the United States or Bosnia, with the semi-final potentially bringing France, Germany, the Netherlands or Morocco.

“Ronaldo was easily neutralised by Colombia.”

Supercomputer lowers Portugal's odds

Before the Colombia draw, Portugal's title chances stood at 6.71%. They have now fallen to 4.7%, making them only the fifth favourite. Spain leads the model at 13.5%, followed by England (9.7%), Brazil (6.5%) and the Netherlands (5.1%). Argentina, on the other side of the draw, has the highest probability of reaching the later stages (89.2% to reach the last 16, 70.5% for the quarter-finals).

Spain13.5%

England9.7%

Brazil6.5%

Netherlands5.1%

Portugal4.7%

Spain

13.5 %

England

9.7 %

Brazil

6.5 %

Netherlands

5.1 %

Portugal

4.7 %

Data from the article text

Echoes of 2016, but a harder road

Portuguese media draw comparisons with Euro 2016, when finishing third in the group gave the team a kinder path to the final. This time, coming second is seen as a bill to pay. Historically, both World Cup campaigns where Portugal advanced as group runners-up (2010 and 2018) ended in the round of 16. Avoiding that outcome is the immediate goal.