Portugal moves further from its 2030 renewables target as IEA projects wind and solar gains

Renewables outlook

The International Energy Agency's "Renewables 2026" report, launched on Friday, 6 November, places Portugal among the ten countries where solar and wind will supply the largest share of electricity in 2031. Portugal ranks ninth for wind, rising from about 27% in 2025 to about 31% in 2031, and tenth for solar, climbing from about 17% to about 27%, according to a reading of the report's chart. Lithuania leads wind at 61%, while Hungary leads solar at 41% in 2031. The agency expects global renewable capacity to grow by almost 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, which would bring renewables close to half of global electricity generation.

“The new chapter in the history of renewables growth is truly global, since its deployment extends far beyond the main markets, reaching every corner of the world.”

The IEA's executive director said renewables now make up a third of world electricity output and should approach half within the next five years. The agency links faster deployment to stronger political backing and rising concern about energy security, after energy markets were disrupted by the war in Iran, which began in late February. Solar is expected to account for more than three quarters of the growth in renewable capacity through 2031.

Renewable target under strain

Expresso reports that Portugal is moving further from its 2030 target for renewable electricity, as its share of green power has slipped. Developers want to invest but face a bottleneck on the grid. Andy Kinsella founded the Irish company Aer Soléir five years ago and has built projects in Italy, Greece and Spain, yet the company has not succeeded in Portugal. Kinsella told Expresso that the company has been trying to develop projects in Portugal for five years.

Return orders and asylum

The European Commission's annual asylum and migration report, published in Brussels, covers the period from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2026. Portugal recorded the second-highest number of return alerts linked to its territory in the EU when measured against its population and economy combined, even though it is not under migratory pressure. Citizens of Brazil, India and Angola were among the main nationalities to receive return orders from Portuguese authorities. Across the 27 member states, return orders totalled 463,000, down 5% on the previous comparable period, while 142,000 irregular migrants were actually returned to third countries, up 11%. The return execution rate rose from 26% to 31%, which the Commission still considers too low, and more than 60% of returns were voluntary. In June 2026 Portugal hosted 68,310 people under temporary protection, mainly due to the war in Ukraine, and these beneficiaries made up more than half of those housed in the national asylum reception system.

Olive oil harvest outlook

Portugal's 2026/27 olive oil campaign, which is now beginning, is expected to be the second largest on record, with output possibly reaching 190,000 tonnes. Recent European Commission forecasts match the sector's own projections. Mariana Matos, director of Casa do Azeite, an organisation representing almost the entire olive oil chain, told Expresso that industry experts think the initial estimate could be exceeded.

“If these figures are confirmed, it will indeed be the second-largest production ever.”