Over 86% of Poles say Nawrocki-Tusk dispute harms national security, polls show

Perceptions of national security impact

Two separate nationwide surveys published on 3 October 2026 show that broad majorities of Polish citizens view the ongoing dispute between President Karol Nawrocki and Prime Minister Donald Tusk as a detriment to national security. In a study conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska between 18 and 20 September 2026, 86.5% of respondents stated that the confrontation between the Presidential Palace and the government harms national security. Among the 1,000 adults surveyed, 44.2% responded that the conflict strongly harms security, while 42.3% indicated that it rather harms security. Only 3.1% of participants believed the political tension causes no harm, consisting of 2.9% answering that it rather does not harm and 0.2% stating it completely does not harm. A further 6.8% saw no impact on security, and 3.6% expressed no clear opinion on the matter.

Cross-party consensus across electorates

The negative assessment of the dispute spans across competing political camps. Among voters supporting the ruling coalition, 95% evaluated the dispute between the president and the government as harmful, with 52% categorizing it as strongly harmful and 43% as rather harmful. In that group, 1% chose rather does not harm, 1% chose completely does not harm, and 3% selected no impact. Opposition voters aligned with Law and Justice, Confederation, and Left Together showed a similar stance, with 86% describing the friction as harmful to national security. Within that opposition cohort, 42% selected strongly harms, 44% selected rather harms, 4% chose rather does not harm, 9% saw no effect, and 1% had no opinion. Among supporters of Confederation, including wings linked to Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun, 72% viewed the standoff as damaging (42% strongly and 30% rather), with 9% answering rather does not harm, 16% indicating no impact, and 3% holding no opinion. Among other and undecided respondents, 33% selected strongly harms, 34% selected rather harms, 10% chose no impact, and 20% selected the undecided option.

Capacity to respond to external threats

A complementary survey by SW Research for Onet.pl, conducted on 29 and 30 September 2026 across 800 adults, evaluated operational crisis management. When asked whether the clash between the cabinet and the president hinders Poland from reacting effectively to security threats, 64.7% of respondents answered affirmatively. In contrast, 18.5% of participants stated that the disagreement does not impede effective responses, while 16.8% found it difficult to state an opinion. The research found consistent answer patterns across gender and age demographics, though concern proved highest among older citizens. Among respondents aged 50 and older, 71.6% reported that the executive dispute impedes effective threat responses, compared to 12.9% who disagreed and 15.5% who remained undecided.

Institutional friction and survey methodology

The polling results follow persistent political friction between the two executive leaders, who previously appeared together on 1 September 2026 to lay flowers at the Westerplatte Polish Army Soldiers' Cemetery. Tensions between the Presidential Palace and the Prime Minister's Chancellery intensified following public exchanges in which Tusk mocked the president, prompting a direct challenge from Nawrocki.

Take that baseball bat and attack me.

The United Surveys study was executed through a mix-mode framework combining computer-assisted web interviews and computer-assisted telephone interviews across a representative nationwide sample of 1,000 Polish adults, with a declared error margin of 3 percentage points at a 0.95 confidence level. The SW Research survey gathered 800 responses using an online panel with quota sampling based on gender, age, and locality size.