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Today’s Brief

Tariffs, tankers and burning pines

Trump widens tariff war as Europe burns and Red Sea shipping comes under fire

The day’s news has the stale smell of compounding risk. Trade rules hardened in Washington, fires forced tens of thousands from European holiday towns, and two maritime theatres, the Red Sea and the Black Sea, looked less safe for commerce.

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World · Updated 28m ago

The US under Trump: second term

The US implemented a new, more durable tariff regime covering 99% of imports from 60 economies, including the EU and Russia, and threatened additional tariffs on the EU over a Google fine.

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© POLITICO
Government·3h ago

Poland's Law and Justice party splits as over 30 MPs leave after power struggle between Kaczyński and Morawiecki

Jarosław Kaczyński announced the departure of more than 30 MPs from Poland's largest opposition party after former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki refused to sign a loyalty pledge, deepening a months-long battle over the party's rightward drift.

The split

On Friday, 24 July 2026, Jarosław Kaczyński, the 77-year-old chairman of Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party, appeared before media at the party's Warsaw headquarters and announced that more than 30 MPs would leave the party. The exact number was still being determined, he said, and he left open whether former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, the leader of the rebel faction, would be among them. The announcement marked the culmination of a months-long power struggle over the party's political direction.

Everyone knew what the consequences would be if they didn't sign. And they made the decision they made.

— Jarosław Kaczyński

Roots of the conflict

The rift began in March when Kaczyński nominated hardline conservative Przemysław Czarnek as the party's candidate for prime minister in the 2027 parliamentary election. The move was intended to win back voters who had drifted to far-right rivals such as Konfederacja and the Confederation of the Polish Crown. Morawiecki, who served as prime minister from 2017 to 2023 and is seen as a technocratic, economically liberal conservative, had expected to lead the party himself. He warned that the sharp rightward turn would alienate centrist voters.

In April, Morawiecki launched an internal faction called "Development Plus" (Rozwój Plus) to rally moderate supporters. "In my grouping, thousands of people are involved who want to reach entrepreneurs and young people," he said, arguing that PiS must return to being a broad centre-right party.

In my grouping, thousands of people are involved who want to reach entrepreneurs and young people.

— Mateusz Morawiecki

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The loyalty ultimatum

Kaczyński viewed the faction as a threat and demanded its dissolution. He set a deadline of Thursday, 23 July, for all PiS MPs to sign a loyalty declaration. Morawiecki refused both demands. A crisis meeting on Thursday ended without agreement. Earlier in the week, Kaczyński had made an emotional appeal on X, urging unity: "I appeal to my colleagues to pause and drink a glass of cold water. The enemy is elsewhere and is rubbing its hands at the sight of the dispute within PiS.... Only united will we win. The Poles would not forgive anything else."

I appeal to my colleagues to pause and drink a glass of cold water. The enemy is elsewhere and is rubbing its hands at the sight of the dispute within PiS.

— Jarosław Kaczyński

What it means for Polish politics

The split undermines the conservative camp's effort to unseat Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the 2027 election. PiS had hoped to build momentum after Karol Nawrocki's victory in the May 2025 presidential election, but the party's poll numbers have been weakening since last autumn. The party that ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023, clashing with Brussels over judicial reforms and LGBTQ+ rights, now faces an uncertain future. Its fragmentation could benefit Tusk's pro-EU coalition. The rupture also highlights a broader dilemma for Europe's right-wing parties: whether to radicalise to capture far-right voters or to moderate to remain a viable coalition partner.

Key events in the PiS split
  1. 2026-03Kaczyński nominates Przemysław Czarnek as PM candidate for 2027
  2. 2026-04Morawiecki launches 'Development Plus' faction
  3. Jul 23, 2026Deadline for loyalty declaration expires; crisis meeting fails
  4. Jul 24, 2026Kaczyński announces over 30 MPs will leave PiS
Warsaw
Jarosław KaczyńskiMateusz MorawieckiPrzemysław CzarnekDonald TuskKarol Nawrocki
Warsaw

5 sources

  • Machtkampf in Polen: Die PiS bricht auseinander
    Frankfurter Allgemeine·8h ago
  • Massenexodus bei Polens rechtskonservativer PiS: Über 30 Abgeordnete verlassen die Partei
    watson.ch/·8h ago
  • Polnische PiS-Partei spaltet sich auf
    Süddeutsche Zeitung·8h ago
  • Polish conservatives split ahead of 2027 election
    POLITICO·9h ago
  • Polen: PiS hat sich nach Richtungsstreit gespalten
    ZEIT ONLINE·9h ago

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