Leaked audio captures Ken Paxton blaming Trump convention for drop in poll numbers

Leaked remarks in Washington

An audio recording from a private donor meeting in Washington revealed Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton acknowledging that a recent party convention damaged his poll standing. During the gathering with conservative donors and lobbyists, an attendee asked whether President Donald Trump was acting as a drag on Republican candidates. Paxton answered that polling metrics fell across the board following the event.

So to be honest with you, the numbers - when we did that convention - it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.

Paxton senior adviser Nick Maddux rejected the recording as manipulated material and stated that internal tracking showed the candidate leading by three percentage points. Maddux maintained that Paxton's standing had improved since early September and confirmed that Trump would campaign in Texas this week.

Texas spending and polling margins

The contest between Paxton, the Texas attorney general, and Democratic state Representative James Talarico has become one of the costliest Senate races in the state. On Wednesday, Paxton announced a $20 million television advertising purchase launching Friday in Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio before expanding statewide. AdImpact tracked total advertising spending across both campaigns and outside political action committees at more than $153 million earlier this month. Talarico collected $30 million in contributions between April and June, while independent polling showed the Democrat leading Paxton by margins ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points. The Senate Leadership Fund, linked to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, committed funding to Paxton, while the Democratic Senate Majority PAC launched ads targeting him on Tuesday.

The Dallas convention and presidential ties

The political tensions follow a Republican midterm convention held on September 9 and 10 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Trump headlined both evenings of the event, which party leaders designed to strengthen November election prospects. Trump publicly praised Paxton while joking about his appearance, asserting later that the convention assisted Paxton's campaign. The president previously endorsed Paxton in May, helping him defeat four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. Outside spending groups continue to allocate resources to the contest, including at least $10 million pledged by Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC under a September Federal Election Commission filing.

Broader national Senate battleground

Senate Republican campaign chairman Tim Scott stated on Wednesday that the party remains confident about defending its Senate majority despite widening vulnerabilities. Scott confirmed that White House chief of staff Susie Wiles met privately with Republican senators on Monday evening, assuring them that financial resources would remain fully available through November. Republican candidates face voter dissatisfaction over grocery and gasoline prices stemming from the Iran war that began in February 2026. The competitive map has expanded into traditionally secure areas, with newcomer Adam Hamilton challenging Republican Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas and Republican Mike Collins competing against Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia.

President Trump and his agenda are on the ballot. Knowing that they are going to invest completely in these races is incredibly helpful.