Orlen Q3 net profit more than doubles to PLN 5.6 billion, below forecasts

Quarterly results beat last year but miss forecasts

Orlen's group generated PLN 14.8 billion of EBITDA LIFO in the third quarter of 2026, up 66.1% on a year earlier, after excluding impairment charges. Revenue reached PLN 80.1 billion, 31.1% higher, while net profit rose to PLN 5.6 billion, an increase of 158.5%. The figures fell short of market expectations. Orlen's own calculation, based on forecasts from nine analysts, put expected EBITDA LIFO at PLN 15.2 billion and net profit at PLN 7.3 billion. Net profit came in nearly PLN 1.9 billion below the consensus of PLN 7.48 billion. A set of figures reported by pb.pl put EBITDA at PLN 13.32 billion and LIFO EBITDA at PLN 12.97 billion, numbers that differ from the PLN 14.8 billion cited by the company.

Q3 20252.17

Q3 20265.61

Q3 2025

2.17 PLN bn

Q3 2026

5.61 PLN bn

Data from the article text

Refining and upstream drove the gains

The Downstream segment, which covers refining and petrochemicals, earned PLN 6.3 billion in EBITDA LIFO, roughly three times its level a year earlier. The refining margin reached $35.9 per barrel of crude processed, $22.7 more than in the prior year. The petrochemical margin was little changed at 177 euro per tonne, while refinery throughput eased slightly to 10.1 million tonnes. Upstream & Supply rose to PLN 4.7 billion as Brent crude averaged $97 a barrel, $27.9 higher, and gas on the TGE exchange averaged PLN 289 per MWh, up PLN 132. Those price gains more than offset a 7% fall in oil and gas output and a loss in wholesale gas trading. Hydrocarbon output fell 7% year on year to 16.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, while wholesale gas sales dropped 15%, refinery sales 5% and petrochemical sales 6%. Energy and Consumers & Products also grew, though less sharply.

Downstream6.3

Upstream & Supply4.7

Downstream

6.3 PLN bn

Upstream & Supply

4.7 PLN bn

Data from the article text

Windfall tax and investment plans

Speaking at a press conference, CEO Ireneusz Fąfara said Orlen had earned enough to cover about PLN 2.4 billion in windfall tax for the period through September. Vice-president Sławomir Jędrzejczyk said the amount would be booked in the fourth quarter, and that estimates for later months will depend on results generated in those months. For the first nine months, net profit topped PLN 21.4 billion, up PLN 13.6 billion year on year, after tax charges of PLN 9.39 billion. Capital spending reached PLN 22.5 billion from January to September, against a planned PLN 36 billion for 2026. In the earnings release, Fąfara stressed that the investment programme continues.

“We are not slowing the pace of investment. In the third quarter we allocated PLN 7.8 billion to development.”

Jędrzejczyk said the target has usually been achieved at a level about 10% below plan, and warned that it may not be fully achieved this year.

Lithuania and Unimot

Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkeviczius announced on 5 November that he had told Orlen of plans for a windfall tax on energy companies. Orlen had told the Lithuanian government that further taxes would affect its investment plans for the Mažeikiai refinery, in which the government has committed to take part within the limits of European rules. Fąfara said internal discussions in the Lithuanian government about Orlen's presence and the scale of state involvement are ongoing, and that Orlen would respond depending on the solution adopted. Separately, Unimot reported preliminary third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of PLN 133 million, above the PLN 108.8 million expected by analysts polled by PAP Biznes. Its revenue came to an estimated PLN 6 billion against a consensus of PLN 4.77 billion, helped by deliveries to the Schwedt refinery in Germany and fuel shipments to Ukraine.