Oil slips despite tenth night of US strikes on Iran as mediators propose 10-day truce
Crude prices fell on Tuesday even as US forces completed a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian command centres, missile bases and air defences in the Middle East, while mediators tabled a 10-day ceasefire proposal and Goldman Sachs warned Brent could top $120 if Hormuz disruptions persist.
Military operations
US Central Command confirmed that American forces carried out a tenth straight night of strikes on Iran on Tuesday, with the barrage lasting five hours. Targets included military command centres, missile bases and air defence systems, according to CENTCOM statements cited by Polish financial dailies.
US forces attacked, among others, Iranian military command centres, missile bases and air defence systems.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that two tankers caught fire after explosions while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC warned the strait would remain closed as long as US operations in the region continue. US command countered that commercial shipping through Hormuz is still flowing.
Escalation threats
Yemen's Houthi rebels announced on Monday they are launching a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. Iran has also asked the group to prepare for attacks on vessels passing through the Bab al-Mandab strait in the event the US strikes Iranian energy infrastructure, according to the reports.
US President Donald Trump issued a direct warning via Truth Social after the Pentagon confirmed three American soldiers were killed in the Middle East over the weekend.
Every time Iran kills an American soldier, it will pay for that death many times over! This order has been conveyed to war minister Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Daniel Caine, and all military commanders.
Oil market reaction
Crude prices fell despite the escalation. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery traded at $82.90 per barrel on NYMEX in New York, down 0.40%. Brent for September delivery on ICE was priced at $88.62 per barrel, a decline of 0.67%.
Goldman Sachs analysts issued stark scenario forecasts. If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, Brent could exceed $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. Under a de-escalation scenario, the bank projects Brent at $80 in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027.
- Current (21 July 2026)
- 88.62 $/bbl
- Q4 2026 - disruption scenario
- 120 $/bbl
- Q4 2026 - de-escalation scenario
- 80 $/bbl
- 2027 - de-escalation scenario
- 75 $/bbl
Diplomatic track
Mediators have proposed de-escalation and a 10-day ceasefire between Iran and the US, aimed at reviving a truce originally negotiated in mid-June, according to a senior Iranian official. That June agreement, brokered with Pakistani and Qatari mediation, proved fragile due to ambiguously drafted clauses interpreted differently by Tehran and Washington, including provisions concerning control over the Strait of Hormuz. Before the current war, roughly 20% of global oil and gas exports transited the waterway.
Tehran's diplomatic services have been active in recent days.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Monday that Washington remains open to diplomatic solutions despite ongoing military operations. The Strait of Hormuz remains the central fault line, with Iran seeking greater control over the chokepoint that carries a fifth of global energy exports.
