New Zealand climate goals at risk as emissions progress stalls and government policies undercut targets, watchdog warns

Stalled emissions progress

New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions are falling too slowly to meet national climate targets, with progress stalling in 2024, the independent Climate Change Commission said in its annual monitoring report. The pace of emissions cuts needs to more than double over the next few years if the country is to get back on track. The commission found that New Zealand's second and third emissions budgets are at high risk, while the 2030 target for biogenic methane (largely produced by livestock) is unlikely to be met. Projections show the emissions budget through 2030 could be met, but more than half of the planned reductions are uncertain.

This is a clear warning sign. Emissions are gradually falling but progress stalled in 2024, and current policy settings are not delivering at the pace needed.

Government policies undercutting targets

The report, released earlier this month but widely publicised on Wednesday, said the right-wing government had ignored emissions-cutting advice in 2025. The commission had recommended strengthening the target to require greater biogenic methane reductions and net negative emissions of all other greenhouse gases. Instead, the government amended the Climate Change Response Act to lessen the methane reductions required by 2050 and left the net-zero gas emissions requirements unchanged. The report warned that government policies excluding agriculture from emissions pricing, changes to clean vehicle rules, reducing reporting requirements for businesses, and planning a liquefied natural gas import facility would raise emissions beyond any savings made elsewhere. Wellington's decision to close the dedicated Ministry for the Environment and fold it into a new department for cities, environment, regions and transport was also cited as a risk.

Government choices in the next 12-24 months will be critical to getting the country back on track.

Technology solutions and barriers

The commission said faster uptake of existing low-emissions technologies could reduce costs for households and businesses and cut exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices. It pointed to electric vehicles, rooftop solar, batteries, and industrial heat pumps as technologies that are already cheaper over time in some common uses. However, barriers such as upfront costs are slowing adoption even where long-term savings are available. The commission urged the government to use targeted finance, clearer investment signals, and better information to help households and businesses switch away from fossil fuels.

Legal challenge

Wellington was taken to court this year over its climate policies, with Lawyers for Climate Action and the Environmental Law Initiative arguing it was not doing enough to meet targets. The result of that case is expected in the coming months.