New Democracy leads MARC poll at 30.4%, 14.6 points ahead of ELAS

Vote estimate and seat projection

The MARC poll for ANT1, presented on the channel's main evening bulletin, keeps New Democracy first with a vote estimate of 30.4%, slightly lower than in the same firm's survey a month earlier. ELAS (Ελληνική Αριστερή Συμπαράταξη), the party led by Alexis Tsipras, sits second at 15.8%, while PASOK, led by Nikos Androulakis, is third at 12.4% and has improved on the previous month. Reports describe ELAS as stuck at 15 to 16%, while PASOK has closed part of the distance to second place without yet showing enough momentum to challenge for first, the target its leader has set, even by a single vote. The gap between the two leading parties is 14.6 points on the estimate. In raw vote intention, New Democracy stands at 27%, ELAS at 13.8% and PASOK at 10.5%.

Based on the estimate, one report projects 121 seats for New Democracy, 47 for ELAS and 37 for PASOK, while another projects 122 seats for New Democracy with the same figures for the other two. Nine parties would enter parliament, with MeRA25, SYRIZA and Niki falling below the threshold. The vote intention figures also leave a double-digit share of voters undecided.

Government rating and the call for change

Negative judgments of the government's record outweigh positive ones. In total, 62.7% rate it negatively or rather negatively, with 44.1% giving a negative verdict, while 36.7% rate it positively or rather positively. Asked to choose between political change and political stability, 54.1% opt for change and 41.1% for stability. The question is put against the backdrop of elections due in spring 2027, which the government itself frames as a choice between the two.

The preference for change falls with age. Among 17 to 44 year olds, 63.7% want change, 32.1% stability and 4.2% are undecided. Among 45 to 64 year olds, 50.1% want change and 44.1% stability, while among those 65 and over, 53% prefer stability and 42.6% change. Nearly 95% of New Democracy voters want stability, and 30% of PASOK voters rate the government positively.

Leaders and the opposition

Kyriakos Mitsotakis leads on suitability for prime minister with 30.6%, ahead of Alexis Tsipras at 14.2% and Nikos Androulakis at 7.4%. On who has the best positions for the country's direction, Mitsotakis scores 36.7%, Tsipras 21.4% and Androulakis 16.3%. Mitsotakis also leads on perceived effectiveness in crises, at 39.4% against 20.6% for Tsipras and 11.3% for Androulakis. Asked who can improve respondents' lives, 30.9% name Mitsotakis, 22.5% Tsipras and 15.1% Androulakis, while 31.5% name no one. Tsipras is the most sympathetic leader at 28.2%. PASOK is seen as offering the most substantive opposition, at 16.6%, ahead of ELAS at 9.2%, Plefsi Eleftherias at 8.2% and Greek Solution at 6.7%.

The Rubio visit

The poll also asked about the visit to Greece by Marco Rubio, which drew a split verdict. 45.1% of respondents judged it positively and 40.7% negatively. Among New Democracy voters, 82.9% saw the visit positively, compared with 47.2% of PASOK voters and 46.8% of Greek Solution voters. The visit was assessed in the same MARC survey that produced the party and leader figures.