US midterm voters fear the America they know is slipping away as Musk's $474 million enters the race

Voters weigh an America they feel is slipping away

Voters across the United States are casting ballots before Tuesday, 3 November, deciding which party controls the Senate and the House and who takes charge of governors' offices, legislatures and state leadership posts in the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency. In dozens of Associated Press interviews with people voting early at polling places and drop boxes, the unease was strong, most sharply among Trump opponents but also among some of his supporters. Shane Dunn, a 65-year-old former cook, cast his first ballot in his life last week in Levittown, Pennsylvania, and he gave his vote to Democrats.

“It feels great, to put my word in.”

Arthur Horner, 59, who runs a food importing and marketing company hurt by tariffs, dropped his mail ballot at Dauphin County's election bureau in Harrisburg and said he wanted to rein in what he called the madness. In Sioux City, Iowa, cattle rancher Elizabeth Marlett, 61, voted Republican while complaining about chemicals in processed food, her son's struggles to get veterans' benefits and what she sees as society's leftward drift.

“Family values are going by the wayside, and they need to be brought back.”

Coastal flooding and a tight House race

In Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina, Aida Havel, a Dare County commission candidate, worked the early voting polls all day before reflecting on the trip home. She lives about 50 miles south on Hatteras Island, where storm debris has again taken Highway 12 out of service. A 45-minute drive has turned into a four-hour logistical exercise by ferry, she said, and she rented an Airbnb for the week rather than repeat the journey.

The Outer Banks sit inside North Carolina's first congressional district, where Democrat Don Davis is in a tough race against Republican Laurie Buckhout. The state legislature redrew the congressional map last year in the Republicans' favour and packed more conservative voters into the district, which makes the contest harder for Davis.

How competitive the House and Senate races are

Analysts who spoke to Reuters estimate that only 40 to 50 of the House's 435 seats are truly competitive this year, which limits how many seats can change hands. Most expect Democrats to take the lower chamber with a majority of perhaps 5 to 20 seats, far below the 41 seats they gained in 2018. Bill Galston, who advised Bill Clinton at the White House, argued that a gain of 25 seats would give Democrats a working majority that is far from large, leaving little room to pass contested legislation.

In the Senate, Democrats are favoured to gain seats, but a net gain of four is needed for a 51-49 majority, and many of their top targets are in states Trump carried by wide margins in 2024. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report said that even a national swing of 10 percentage points toward Democrats would likely leave the party two seats short. Democrats also face tighter than expected contests in Maine, New Hampshire and Michigan, states they had hoped would be safer.

Elon Musk's $474 million

Elon Musk has given more money in the midterm cycle than any donor has spent in a single cycle, apart from wealthy candidates funding their own campaigns. Of the $474 million, which includes disclosed donations to federal and state groups since 1 January 2025, about $216 million went to his super PAC America PAC, which is running a large field operation. Another $168 million went to the Senate Leadership Fund, which almost entirely backed Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee in Texas, and $30 million went to the Congressional Leadership Fund.

America PAC216

Senate Leadership Fund168

Congressional Leadership Fund30

Other Republican federal groups or candidates44

State efforts in Michigan, Texas, Wisconsin16

America PAC

216 USD million

Senate Leadership Fund

168 USD million

Congressional Leadership Fund

30 USD million

Other Republican federal groups or candidates

44 USD million

State efforts in Michigan, Texas, Wisconsin

16 USD million

Data from the article text

An additional $44 million or so went to other Republican groups or candidates at the federal level, and roughly $16 million went to state-focused efforts in Michigan, Texas and Wisconsin. Only Michael R. Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, has spent more in a single election cycle, during his 2020 presidential run. The New York Times said the total is almost certainly an undercount, since Musk has also made dark-money donations this cycle and federal records run only through 14 October. Democratic lawmakers have said that if they win control of Congress, they plan to scrutinise Musk on several fronts, including his time leading the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.