French frigate shoots down ballistic missile near Belgian minehunter Primula

The interception

A ballistic missile was shot down around 14 October near the Belgian minehunter Primula while the vessel was sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait off Yemen. A French escort frigate accompanying the Primula carried out the interception as a precaution after the missile was spotted near the ship during the mission. Belgian Defence confirmed the incident to VRT NWS, after De Morgen first reported it citing anonymous sources. The Primula has no missile defence capability of its own, which is why it sails under the protection of a French escort.

Target or warning shot

Sources say the minehunter was probably not the target of the missile. Defence expert Jens Franssen considers a direct attack on the ship very unlikely and explained why in an interview with VRT NWS.

“It is very unlikely that the minehunter was the target of a ballistic missile attack.”

Franssen noted that such a missile flies very high and very fast, which makes it hard to hit a moving ship, and that anti-ship missiles are normally used in that case. The Houthis do possess anti-ship ballistic missiles, but hitting a moving vessel requires targeting information, and it is far from clear whether they have enough intelligence to do so. A warning shot or a show of force remains possible, and the Houthis have not stated why the missile was fired. Sources also say there are no indications that the Primula or its escort were deliberately targeted.

Background in the Red Sea

The Houthis have controlled a large part of western Yemen since 2014, including the capital Sanaa and the Red Sea coastline, and they are at war with Saudi Arabia. Ships passing Bab el-Mandeb are attacked regularly by the group, mostly with missiles or drones. Saudi Arabia launched an offensive to drive the Houthis out of the coastal area, and the rebels responded with missile and drone attacks on targets inside Saudi Arabia. According to De Morgen, the Houthis receive covert support from Iran, Russia and China. Around 2 billion barrels of oil and goods worth 1 trillion dollars pass through the strait each year, which makes it one of the busiest routes between Europe and Asia. At the end of September, the Houthis told the EU they would stop attacking European ships.

Mission and next steps

The Primula has been deployed since the summer in the waters south of the Arabian Peninsula, where it is preparing for a possible mission in the Strait of Hormuz. That strait needs to be cleared of mines following a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, and Belgium wants to help. The Belgian navy has extensive mine countermeasure experience, but its minehunters cannot defend themselves, and Belgium itself has only two outdated frigates. An investigation is under way in France, where Paris is for now keeping the case low profile. The Belgian navy and Defence Minister Theo Francken (N-VA) have declined to comment on the incident, and the Primula is reportedly back in safe waters.