Italy's governing coalition wins Calabria by-election with 53.6% of the vote

By-election results in Calabria

Fabio Roscioli, the treasurer of Forza Italia close to the Berlusconi family, won the parliamentary by-election for the Reggio Calabria-Locri constituency representing Italy's governing coalition on Monday. Roscioli secured 53.62% of the vote with 263 of 478 polling sections counted, retaining the seat in the Chamber of Deputies previously held by Francesco Cannizzaro, who was elected mayor of Reggio Calabria in June. Frank Benedetto, running for the broad centre-left opposition coalition, secured 36.40% of the vote according to the official interior ministry platform. Domenico Giannetta, representing former army general Roberto Vannacci's newly established National Future party, placed third with 9.02% of the ballots. Francesco Toscano of Sovereign and Popular Democracy obtained 1.32% of the votes.

Electoral turnout and participation

Turnout for the two-day vote reached 22.34% across the 71 municipalities of the constituency, marking a steep decline from the 49.40% recorded in the single-day 2022 general election. Voting opened on Sunday morning and closed on Monday at 15:00, with interior ministry figures showing an interim participation rate of 14.97% at 23:00 on Sunday night. Local electoral officials noted that the overall participation figure was constrained by a large register of voters residing abroad, though it stood as the second-highest turnout among recent single by-elections in Italy. The low voter engagement coincided with intensive national media coverage surrounding the conservative constituency.

Reactions from the governing coalition

The result provided relief to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ahead of a general election due next year. Following early figures compiled by coalition observers across the 71 municipalities, Calabria Governor and Forza Italia deputy leader Roberto Occhiuto published a celebratory video on X alongside Cannizzaro, Senator Claudio Lotito, Mario Occhiuto, and Stefania Craxi. Occhiuto referenced German regional elections where the far-right alternative party advanced to mock Vannacci's southern campaign.

Vannacci wanted his Saxony? In Reggio he got electoral stones.

Meloni praised the outcome on social media, stating that the governing alliance proved its cohesion against the combined opposition front. She stated that the victory rewarded a compact coalition capable of speaking directly to local territories.

The centre-right confirms itself united also in the by-elections of Reggio Calabria, prevailing over the very broad front of the oppositions.

Far-right challenge and internal coalition friction

The ballot served as the debut electoral contest for National Future, which Vannacci founded in February and which reached approximately 9% in national opinion polls on anti-migrant rhetoric and traditional values. Vannacci selected the southern constituency to present his movement as an uncompromising alternative to the governing right. Giannetta previously served as the Forza Italia group leader in the Calabria Regional Council before defecting to run under Vannacci's banner. Polling analyst Lorenzo Pregliasco, head of the YouTrend institute, assessed that the debut fell below internal expectations given the high profile of the campaign.

With turnout extremely low, strong media attention and a candidate with significant personal backing, I believe Vannacci expected a far better showing.

Internal friction over Vannacci intensified during the campaign after parliament undersecretary Matilde Siracusano announced a lawsuit against him for posting an artificial-intelligence-generated image showing her in a revealing top. Siracusano, who is Occhiuto's partner, warned that any future national electoral pact with National Future would present a serious problem for the governing coalition.