Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia detail mechanisms of Mecca defence pact

Signing and structure

On August 7, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in Mecca. The three leaders then went to the palace mosque to pray together. The accord stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all, language echoing NATO's Article 5 collective defence clause. At a weekly briefing in Ankara on August 13, Turkey's defence ministry said the pact would establish strategic political and military mechanisms involving the defence ministers, foreign ministers, and chiefs of general staff of the three countries, with coordination conducted at the highest level.

Military and industrial cooperation

The ministry said joint military exercises involving land, naval and air forces, as well as air defence and unmanned systems, were being planned. Defence industry cooperation would go beyond product supply to include joint development and production, technology cooperation, and sustainable maintenance and logistics support. Unmanned and autonomous systems, electronic warfare, and artificial intelligence capabilities would be prioritised. Turkey, which has NATO's second-largest army, has said the pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, the world's eighth-biggest arms spender, was open to expansion, with Egypt as a potential candidate, and did not seek to replace existing alliances. Turkey is also participating in meetings in Jeddah aimed at establishing an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping.

First test from Yemen

Two days after the signing, the pro-Iranian Houthi militia in Yemen attacked a Saudi refinery with a drone on August 9. The Houthis had previously imposed a naval blockade against Saudi ports and repeatedly attacked ships in the Bab al-Mandab strait to block Saudi oil exports. No concrete reaction from Turkey or Pakistan followed the refinery strike, and the Houthi attack appeared little deterred by the new alliance.

Regional context and Iran

The pact follows the US-Israeli war on Iran launched in February 2026. Saudi Arabia has been a target of Iranian counterattacks, primarily aimed at US bases on Saudi soil but also damaging oil infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and Turkey had warned US President Donald Trump in January against war on Iran. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan already signed a mutual defence agreement in September 2025, the exact terms of which remain confidential. In May 2026, Islamabad sent approximately 8,000 soldiers, a fighter jet squadron, and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia without public announcement. Rather than pursuing retaliation against Iran, Pakistan attempted to mediate between the US and Iran.

NATO domino concern

Geopolitics expert Klemens Fischer warned that the pact could trigger a domino effect extending beyond the region. If Saudi Arabia invoked the pact, Turkey intervened, and was then attacked, Turkey could invoke NATO's Article 5, turning a regional escalation into a problem for the entire Western alliance.

At that point at the latest, it becomes clear into what dilemma NATO is falling.

Fischer described Erdogan as an "incredibly good player" who manages to keep multiple options open across different geopolitical spaces, including NATO, the Russian sphere, and now the Islamic world.

We are witnessing a player at the board who manages to keep several options open for himself.