Lula da Silva to back Pedro Sánchez at a Madrid campaign event on 16 November

Lula's stop in Madrid

Brazilian government sources told CNN Brazil that Lula da Silva will travel to Spain on Sunday, 15 November, and take part in an event on Monday, 16 November. Spanish government sources confirmed the Monday stop, which will be his first visit to Spain since he won Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October. The trip is a stop on his way back from the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, which runs from 9 to 19 November, and comes before a visit to the Philippines for the ASEAN summit. El País notes that Lula is 81 and still has a strong appetite for rallies.

A meeting followed by a rally

The day begins with a bilateral meeting at La Moncloa, the prime minister's office, which may end with a joint press conference. Government sources said the two leaders will then take part in a joint campaign event in Madrid, where Lula is expected to voice his support for Sánchez. Adnkronos reports that Andre Janones, the Brazilian deputy who led Lula's social media campaign, will also attend. According to government sources, the talks will cover bilateral relations and global initiatives such as Democracia Siempre and the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. Europa Press reports that the visit is the first by a Brazilian president since Lula's victory, and that it follows the Ibero-American Summit held in Madrid.

Sánchez's Brazil argument

Sánchez reacted to Lula's 25 October result on X, writing:

“What has happened in Brazil will happen in Spain. The comeback of global progressivism has just begun.”

Since then he has used the Brazilian comeback, along with the success of the Democrats in the United States, as evidence that the far-right wave is slowing. El País reports that he wants Spain to become the third milestone in that resistance. ABC reports that Sánchez has framed the campaign as a binary choice between democracy, which he says he represents, and authoritarianism and regression from the right and far right.

Polls and the path to a majority

Spain votes in its general election on 29 November. ABC reports that the Socialist leadership at Ferraz believes the PSOE could finish first if it mobilizes one million undecided voters on the progressive side. Vox's rise weakens the PP, which ABC says benefits the Socialists, but a majority is harder to reach without a strong partner on the left. Europa Press reports that polls forecast a negative result for the Socialists, even though Sánchez has used the Brazilian case in his pre-campaign rallies. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum disclosed at her daily press conference on 12 November that she had been in contact with Sánchez.

The relationship and its limits

Lula and Sánchez have grown close in recent years, and El País describes them as the two main references of the Western left. The two appeared together at a meeting of international progressive leaders in Barcelona, where Lula almost named Sánchez his political heir. Lula did not attend the XXX Ibero-American Summit in Madrid on 4 and 5 November, having been worn down by his own election campaign. El País also notes that the electoral systems differ, since Brazil elects its head of state directly in a runoff. The next date on the calendar is the Monday meeting in Madrid, and the Spanish vote follows on 29 November.