Lithuania's Nausėda says Putin is testing NATO and sees no peace talks before spring

Interview in Düsseldorf

WELT met Nausėda in Düsseldorf shortly after he opened the NRW Resilience Summit with North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister-President Hendrik Wüst. He then met German business representatives at the German-Lithuanian Business Forum, including Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger. Nausėda has led Lithuania since 2019 and is an economist who previously served as chief economist at SEB, Lithuania's largest bank. He wrote a doctorate that included research at the University of Mannheim and speaks German.

Putin is testing the alliance

Nausėda told WELT that he does not think Russia is ready for large-scale operations at present, because its forces remain tied down on the Ukrainian battlefield. He nonetheless warned that Putin is probing NATO and moving closer to the alliance's collective defense clause.

“Putin is testing us and moving ever closer to Article 5, NATO's collective defense commitment.”

He also put Russian losses in October at about 45,000 soldiers, a figure he described as enormous.

Hybrid pressure on the eastern flank

Nausėda said Moscow wants to see how the alliance responds to hybrid attacks, which are suspected to include drone incursions, cyberattacks and arson. In his view the hybrid war will continue not only on NATO's eastern flank but also in Germany, Denmark and other countries. He said Russia is testing how determined the allies are and whether they would respond collectively once certain red lines are crossed. Asked about Poland's military reinforcement of its border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, he said Lithuania had received intelligence about possible provocations and had stepped up its own border measures. He described a recent drone that struck a tree and exploded, with no one nearby, as proof that gaps remain in Lithuania's air defense, and said Vilnius is accelerating procurement of anti-drone and reconnaissance systems to be better positioned in the second half of 2027.

No talks before spring

Nausėda sees no serious willingness in Moscow to start negotiations to end the war in Ukraine before spring. He expects Russia to use the winter months to keep up pressure on Ukraine through air strikes on cities, and he warned that Kyiv faces a winter under drone and missile attacks.

“The Russians will only pretend to negotiate. I don't trust them.”

He said Putin will put forward demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine from the outset. Nausėda expects the chances of serious talks to improve in 2027, provided Ukraine gets through the winter.

“If Ukraine gets through this winter, and I am convinced that it will, the chances of serious talks will improve in 2027. I don't expect them any earlier.”

Estonia and Latvia urge caution

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told POLITICO that Europe should choke Moscow with sanctions rather than try to negotiate with the Kremlin. He argued that Europe should not take the role of mediator and warned that direct talks would weaken its position against Putin. Latvia has also warned against negotiating with Russia.