Romanian leu falls to record 5.3527 per euro following prime minister nomination

Exchange rate reaches all-time peak

The National Bank of Romania set the official exchange rate for the single currency at 5.3527 lei on Tuesday, 6 October 2026. The rate represents a daily increase of 2.21 bani (0.41%) from Monday's benchmark of 5.3306 lei per euro. The currency had previously touched 5.3447 lei on Friday, 2 October, before experiencing a brief correction at the start of the week. Across four trading sessions, the euro gained 7.5 bani against the leu, rising 1.42% from its 1 October level of 5.2777 lei. The movement marks the first time the official central bank reference rate has climbed above 5.35 lei.

Political impasse and executive nomination

The currency movement follows five months of institutional instability triggered by the dismissal of the Bolojan cabinet through a parliamentary no-confidence vote in May 2026. On Monday evening, President Nicușor Dan designated diplomat Luca Niculescu as the new prime minister after nearly six hours of consultations with parliamentary parties. This represents the fourth nomination attempt to resolve the executive vacancy. Niculescu has ten days to present a governing programme and cabinet list, requiring at least 233 parliamentary votes for confirmation. President Nicușor Dan explained the choice by citing Niculescu's diplomatic background and institutional experience.

My proposal for the position of prime minister is Luca Niculescu. He is a diplomat, meaning a person whose profession is to harmonize positions. In the last 4 years he handled Romania's accession to the OECD and in that capacity worked with Romanian state institutions, so he is someone who knows the Romanian state.

Movement across global currency baskets

Depreciation extended across several foreign currencies quoted by the central bank. The US dollar gained 0.47 bani to reach 4.7616 lei on Tuesday, climbing from 4.7569 lei on Monday and 4.7519 lei on Friday. The British pound advanced 1.42 bani to trade at 6.3036 lei, while 100 Hungarian forints rose to 1.4650 lei from 1.4485 lei. In contrast, the Swiss franc dropped by 0.73 bani to 5.7285 lei, and the official gold reference price declined marginally to 635.8864 lei per gram from 635.9834 lei. Additional fixings included the Polish zloty at 1.2250 lei and the Chinese renminbi at 0.7102 lei.

Fiscal vulnerabilities and market outlook

Financial market analysts attribute the currency trajectory to elevated budget deficits, political uncertainty, and expectations surrounding central bank interest rate decisions. S&P affirmed Romania's investment grade rating on Friday, which preceded a 4% gain on the Bucharest Stock Exchange's BET index on Monday. eToro analyst Bogdan Maioreanu noted that the absence of a confirmed government continues to cloud fiscal stabilization reforms. In its macroeconomic outlook, CFA Romania projected that the exchange rate could weaken further to between 5.40 and 5.50 lei per euro by the end of 2027. Adrian Codîrlașu, president of CFA Romania, outlined the forecast during the presentation of the report.

Our expectations are somewhere around 5.4-5.5 lei for one euro at the end of next year.

A CFA survey conducted in August indicated that 90% of participating analysts anticipated a weaker leu over the coming year, forecasting a 12-month average of 5.36 lei per euro.