French polls show Marine Le Pen leading presidential race as Jean-Luc Mélenchon takes second

First-round projections favor Le Pen

Polling released on 14 September 2026 ahead of the upcoming presidential election scheduled for next spring shows National Rally leader Marine Le Pen maintaining a consistent lead. A survey conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive between 8 and 10 September 2026 places Le Pen between 33% and 36% of the first-round vote across all tested scenarios. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, representing the left-wing La France Insoumise (LFI), follows her as the main challenger across most configurations. In the Toluna Harris Interactive study, Mélenchon reaches the second round in at least three of five tested scenarios and ties for second place in a fourth. Runoff projections indicate that Le Pen would defeat Mélenchon comfortably in a head-to-head second-round contest.

Centrist division and candidate matchups

Centrist and center-right candidates struggle across multiple polling scenarios to secure runoff positions. A study by Ipsos-BVA Cesi for Le Monde, CEVIPOF at Sciences Po, the Jean Jaurès Foundation, and the Montaigne Institute surveyed more than 13,000 respondents who expressed a desire for "real social and political change." In that research, Mélenchon trails Le Pen with a substantial margin in four out of six tested scenarios. Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, representing the Horizons party, qualifies for the second round in only two scenarios: if he runs as the sole candidate from the centrist bloc without Renaissance candidate Gabriel Attal, and faces Social Democrat hopefuls Raphaël Glucksmann or Olivier Faure. Attal fails to qualify for the second round in any scenario examined by the Ipsos-BVA poll. In the Toluna Harris Interactive testing, Philippe is the only center-right figure to lead Mélenchon in one scenario and tie in another, while all other center-right candidates trail Mélenchon across every tested model.

Fractured center at the end of Macron's mandate

The survey results reflect the political landscape as Emmanuel Macron approaches the end of his second and final term in office. The unpopular president leaves behind a decimated political center and a weakened domestic economy after nearly a decade in power. This environment has created room for hardline parties on both sides of the political spectrum, specifically Mélenchon's La France Insoumise on the left and Le Pen's National Rally on the right. The resulting polarization leaves moderate political forces divided and struggling to assemble a unified voting coalition before the vote.

Historical presidential bid records

Both frontrunners carry long records in French presidential contests, having each mounted three previous campaigns in 2012, 2017, and 2022. Mélenchon was eliminated in the first round in all three of his previous attempts, failing to reach a runoff in 2012, 2017, or 2022. Le Pen also ran in three prior contests, exiting in the first round in 2012 before reaching the second round in both 2017 and 2022, where she lost both runoff votes to Macron. The upcoming election represents the first presidential race since 2012 without Macron on the ballot, positioning both long-standing opposition figures at the center of the contest.