Labour leads YouGov poll at 27% as Reform UK falls to joint-lowest 20%

Labour's poll lead

YouGov's latest voting intention poll puts Labour on 27%, six points ahead of the Conservatives on 21%. That is the largest Labour lead the pollster has recorded since it restarted tracking in January 2025. Reform UK is on 20%, level with its lowest figure since January 2025, while the Liberal Democrats stand at 12% and the Greens at 10%. Reform had led the polls for more than a year before Andy Burnham became prime minister.

Labour27%

Conservatives21%

Reform UK20%

Liberal Democrats12%

Greens10%

Labour

27 %

Conservatives

21 %

Reform UK

20 %

Liberal Democrats

12 %

Greens

10 %

Data from the article text

YouGov said the figures 'reaffirm the substantial shift in voting intention polls seen in recent months'. Comparing its tracker average over the last month with the month before the Makerfield by-election, Labour gained nine points and the Conservatives four, while the Greens lost five, Reform four and the Liberal Democrats two.

Labour9

Conservatives4

Greens-5

Reform UK-4

Liberal Democrats-2

Labour

9 points

Conservatives

4 points

Greens

-5 points

Reform UK

-4 points

Liberal Democrats

-2 points

Data from the article text

Reform under pressure

Reform has had a difficult few months, with a £5m donation from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne drawing scrutiny alongside two covert operations filmed by journalists. On Sunday, 8 November, Nigel Farage appeared on the BBC's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg, where he was asked whether he expected Parliament's standards commissioner to rule against him. He responded:

“Do I think the establishment would find against me, the leader of an insurgent party? What a question to ask.”

Commons rules require new MPs to register gifts above £300 received in the previous 12 months, unless others could not reasonably think they relate to political activity. The twin £36 million gifts from Ben Delo and Mr Harborne have revived calls for a blanket cap on donations, a step beyond the current restrictions on overseas money. Reform is also struggling to win back voters from Restore Britain, a right-wing party formed by a former Reform MP.

Starmer's shadow over Burnham

Keir Starmer was an unexpected face in the Remembrance Sunday line-up at the Cenotaph, among nine living former prime ministers, while Burnham took part as the sitting prime minister. Starmer has spoken publicly only once since leaving Downing Street, a speech at a British-Irish Chamber of Commerce dinner in Dublin around 30 October. In it he argued that Europe needed to carry far more of its own defence and security, because the post-Trump world would not return to what came before. A commentary judged that speech more helpful to Burnham than recent remarks from others formerly close to Starmer. Chancellor John Healey's Budget came three days before the Dublin speech and committed Britain to spending 3% of national income on defence within four years. Healey had resigned as defence secretary in June over that same question, and the resignation set off Starmer's downfall.

Europe and the Makerfield test

Burnham has ruled out rejoining the EU. During the Makerfield by-election campaign he said:

“I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU.”

He also pledged to respect the 2016 referendum result. Makerfield, which voted to leave the EU in 2016, returned him at a by-election in June after Labour MP Josh Simons stood down to trigger it, and a month later he was prime minister. Burnham later set out a 'Makerfield test' for policy, which his programme website defines as a policy appraisal criterion. One commentary says polling suggests voters in the constituency are unhappy with his stance on the EU.

Scottish Labour leader Michael Marra, a Labour MSP, used a speech in Edinburgh on Tuesday, 10 November, to call for the UK to rejoin the EU as a long-term objective. He accepted there would be serious questions over currency and borders, and said 'difficult is not the same as impossible'. He conceded his position goes further than Burnham's, who is expected to travel to Brussels next week to sign deals on food and farming trade barriers, emissions trading and youth mobility. Marra said:

“The UK should rejoin the European Union and Scottish Labour will work to make that happen.”

He acknowledged that rejoining is not current policy for the UK Labour Party or the government.

Fiscal devolution in the Budget

The Budget confirmed that from 2028 every mayoral authority will receive a share of the basic-rate income tax paid by its residents. From next year, mayoral areas will keep a share of the business rates raised locally, and councils and mayors are to retain those rates in full by the end of the decade. The co-chair of Prosper UK, a former West Midlands mayor, calls this long overdue. The writer says the West Midlands secured roughly £10bn of additional public investment during their time as mayor, nearly all of it requiring government sign-off. The writer cites figures showing over 90% of UK tax take goes to the Treasury, against an OECD average of around 53%, and Centre for Cities estimates that urban areas outside London underperform on output by around £47bn a year. Burnham was Greater Manchester mayor over the same period.